Twixt Commentator — First Moves

Elo-adjusted expected-score residuals for board size 24.

This page shows how White's actual win rate compares to what Elo ratings would predict, for each first move, normalized to the upper-left quadrant of a 24×24 board.

Residual: White underperforms Elo ≈ expected White overperforms Elo dashed = <20 games

First Move Heatmap

b c d e f g h i j k l
1
b1
−8.8%
2.1% swap
c1
−8.1%
0.0% swap
d1
−14.7%
0.0% swap
e1
−12.4%
0.0% swap
f1
−16.7%
0.0% swap
g1
−23.5%
0.0% swap
h1
−13.6%
3.4% swap
i1
−4.1%
3.2% swap
j1
−4.2%
4.5% swap
k1
−13.6%
0.0% swap
l1
−13.4%
1.8% swap
2
b2
−9.2%
0.9% swap
c2
−8.8%
3.6% swap
d2
−5.1%
3.4% swap
e2
−8.2%
7.2% swap
f2
−2.2%
9.5% swap
g2
−23.3%
5.9% swap
h2
−25.6%
4.5% swap
i2
−16.1%
6.3% swap
j2
−13.2%
0.0% swap
k2
−21.8%
0.0% swap
l2
−16.8%
4.0% swap
3
b3
+1.8%
3.0% swap
c3
−0.7%
18.7% swap
d3
+1.4%
24.9% swap
e3
+0.8%
24.9% swap
f3
−1.6%
23.3% swap
g3
+0.4%
26.2% swap
h3
−1.6%
23.7% swap
i3
−6.6%
21.1% swap
j3
−7.5%
22.4% swap
k3
−9.1%
25.3% swap
l3
−0.8%
20.1% swap
4
b4
+0.2%
4.8% swap
c4
+2.4%
29.0% swap
d4
+1.9%
38.7% swap
e4
+1.8%
42.8% swap
f4
+0.9%
44.7% swap
g4
+4.1%
47.0% swap
h4
−1.2%
37.3% swap
i4
+0.5%
34.8% swap
j4
−0.3%
28.3% swap
k4
−5.8%
27.7% swap
l4
−2.8%
20.1% swap
5
b5
−3.4%
9.0% swap
c5
+2.5%
26.9% swap
d5
+2.1%
39.6% swap
e5
+1.1%
46.3% swap
f5
−2.4%
47.7% swap
g5
−0.6%
44.9% swap
h5
+0.4%
44.1% swap
i5
+1.0%
44.9% swap
j5
−1.6%
49.3% swap
k5
−1.0%
35.6% swap
l5
−10.4%
35.0% swap
6
b6
+3.1%
38.2% swap
c6
+4.4%
29.1% swap
d6
+1.4%
44.5% swap
e6
−2.2%
48.3% swap
f6
−3.0%
49.7% swap
g6
−2.2%
49.4% swap
h6
+3.0%
54.1% swap
i6
−2.0%
49.1% swap
j6
−5.8%
49.5% swap
k6
−1.8%
40.5% swap
l6
−4.6%
46.1% swap
7
b7
−2.3%
43.6% swap
c7
+3.6%
24.0% swap
d7
+1.9%
48.1% swap
e7
+0.2%
52.0% swap
f7
−3.3%
58.7% swap
g7
−4.3%
57.0% swap
h7
−1.7%
52.2% swap
i7
−4.6%
46.4% swap
j7
−8.0%
55.1% swap
k7
−0.2%
53.3% swap
l7
−5.3%
42.6% swap
8
b8
−1.3%
17.0% swap
c8
+3.4%
26.4% swap
d8
+1.5%
45.1% swap
e8
−5.5%
51.6% swap
f8
−2.3%
53.8% swap
g8
−8.1%
57.2% swap
h8
−4.7%
53.8% swap
i8
−7.1%
52.5% swap
j8
−3.3%
56.3% swap
k8
−6.0%
60.3% swap
l8
−0.3%
46.9% swap
9
b9
−0.9%
38.2% swap
c9
−1.9%
28.6% swap
d9
−1.2%
47.5% swap
e9
+7.9%
47.9% swap
f9
−2.1%
52.9% swap
g9
−7.1%
60.9% swap
h9
−5.0%
53.6% swap
i9
−3.7%
56.5% swap
j9
−4.7%
56.1% swap
k9
−2.5%
43.2% swap
l9
−1.8%
53.1% swap
10
b10
−2.1%
13.3% swap
c10
+1.7%
24.7% swap
d10
−7.4%
42.5% swap
e10
−0.2%
40.2% swap
f10
−6.6%
54.2% swap
g10
−5.8%
58.5% swap
h10
−3.8%
57.1% swap
i10
−1.0%
52.1% swap
j10
−1.4%
48.0% swap
k10
−2.9%
45.0% swap
l10
−9.1%
50.0% swap
11
b11
−9.9%
7.1% swap
c11
+4.2%
29.6% swap
d11
−6.0%
46.0% swap
e11
−5.8%
45.5% swap
f11
−6.9%
45.0% swap
g11
−1.5%
46.5% swap
h11
−6.3%
52.7% swap
i11
−2.5%
53.2% swap
j11
−5.5%
53.3% swap
k11
−5.5%
53.3% swap
l11
−10.2%
54.2% swap
12
b12
+2.8%
25.5% swap
c12
+6.4%
29.5% swap
d12
−0.1%
51.3% swap
e12
−3.0%
48.4% swap
f12
−4.3%
50.4% swap
g12
−7.8%
54.3% swap
h12
−3.7%
51.9% swap
i12
−7.5%
55.1% swap
j12
−4.6%
56.4% swap
k12
−7.5%
54.3% swap
l12
−7.3%
58.0% swap

75,491 games included (board size 24, pegs > 7 and < 100, excluding forfeits and draws). Elo ratings use K = 32, computed from all size 24 Twixt history. Hover a cell for details.

Ranked by Residual

Click any column header to sort.

# Move Games Win Rate Expected Swap % Residual ▼
1 e9 71 54.9% 47.0% 47.9% +7.9%
2 c12 1,114 61.8% 55.3% 29.5% +6.4%
3 c6 707 58.3% 53.9% 29.1% +4.4%
4 c11 179 55.9% 51.7% 29.6% +4.2%
5 g4 1,588 60.5% 56.4% 47.0% +4.1%
6 c7 362 63.0% 59.3% 24.0% +3.6%
7 c8 611 54.7% 51.2% 26.4% +3.4%
8 b6 152 46.7% 43.6% 38.2% +3.1%
9 h6 344 55.8% 52.8% 54.1% +3.0%
10 b12 141 51.8% 48.9% 25.5% +2.8%
11 c5 1,543 53.2% 50.7% 26.9% +2.5%
12 c4 3,017 55.8% 53.4% 29.0% +2.4%
13 d5 1,109 48.2% 46.0% 39.6% +2.1%
14 d7 414 55.3% 53.4% 48.1% +1.9%
15 d4 3,701 53.3% 51.5% 38.7% +1.9%
16 e4 3,448 50.8% 49.0% 42.8% +1.8%
17 b3 66 48.5% 46.7% 3.0% +1.8%
18 c10 162 61.1% 59.4% 24.7% +1.7%
19 d8 224 52.2% 50.8% 45.1% +1.5%
20 d3 14,268 57.1% 55.7% 24.9% +1.4%
21 d6 1,060 49.3% 47.9% 44.5% +1.4%
22 e5 1,940 47.7% 46.6% 46.3% +1.1%
23 i5 316 50.9% 49.9% 44.9% +1.0%
24 f4 2,701 47.5% 46.7% 44.7% +0.9%
25 e3 5,301 55.7% 54.9% 24.9% +0.8%
26 i4 379 60.2% 59.7% 34.8% +0.5%
27 g3 450 51.6% 51.2% 26.2% +0.4%
28 h5 1,207 44.2% 43.9% 44.1% +0.4%
29 b4 146 54.8% 54.6% 4.8% +0.2%
30 e7 223 48.9% 48.7% 52.0% +0.2%
31 d12 238 48.3% 48.4% 51.3% −0.1%
32 k7 180 40.6% 40.7% 53.3% −0.2%
33 e10 82 48.8% 48.9% 40.2% −0.2%
34 l8 311 45.7% 45.9% 46.9% −0.3%
35 j4 180 53.3% 53.7% 28.3% −0.3%
36 g5 664 46.1% 46.7% 44.9% −0.6%
37 c3 1,150 47.0% 47.7% 18.7% −0.7%
38 l3 244 42.6% 43.4% 20.1% −0.8%
39 b9 55 25.5% 26.3% 38.2% −0.9%
40 k5 222 41.0% 42.0% 35.6% −1.0%
41 i10 305 36.1% 37.1% 52.1% −1.0%
42 d9 118 50.0% 51.2% 47.5% −1.2%
43 h4 679 57.1% 58.3% 37.3% −1.2%
44 b8 53 54.7% 56.1% 17.0% −1.3%
45 j10 638 41.7% 43.1% 48.0% −1.4%
46 g11 114 40.4% 41.9% 46.5% −1.5%
47 j5 306 49.0% 50.6% 49.3% −1.6%
48 h3 224 49.6% 51.2% 23.7% −1.6%
49 f3 2,416 54.7% 56.3% 23.3% −1.6%
50 h7 232 39.2% 40.9% 52.2% −1.7%
51 k6 185 49.7% 51.5% 40.5% −1.8%
52 l9 254 41.7% 43.5% 53.1% −1.8%
53 c9 119 53.8% 55.7% 28.6% −1.9%
54 i6 269 48.3% 50.4% 49.1% −2.0%
55 f9 87 41.4% 43.5% 52.9% −2.1%
56 b10 15 26.7% 28.8% 13.3% −2.1%
57 g6 429 45.5% 47.6% 49.4% −2.2%
58 f2 42 38.1% 40.3% 9.5% −2.2%
59 e6 414 44.7% 46.9% 48.3% −2.2%
60 f8 145 43.4% 45.7% 53.8% −2.3%
61 b7 94 52.1% 54.4% 43.6% −2.3%
62 f5 930 46.5% 48.9% 47.7% −2.4%
63 i11 216 34.3% 36.7% 53.2% −2.5%
64 k9 229 41.0% 43.6% 43.2% −2.5%
65 l4 179 38.5% 41.4% 20.1% −2.8%
66 k10 278 35.3% 38.2% 45.0% −2.9%
67 e12 95 45.3% 48.3% 48.4% −3.0%
68 f6 833 41.4% 44.4% 49.7% −3.0%
69 j8 192 50.0% 53.3% 56.3% −3.3%
70 f7 269 40.1% 43.5% 58.7% −3.3%
71 b5 122 47.5% 50.9% 9.0% −3.4%
72 h12 260 35.0% 38.7% 51.9% −3.7%
73 i9 1,862 37.2% 40.9% 56.5% −3.7%
74 h10 156 34.0% 37.8% 57.1% −3.8%
75 i1 31 25.8% 29.9% 3.2% −4.1%
76 j1 44 31.8% 36.0% 4.5% −4.2%
77 g7 407 37.8% 42.2% 57.0% −4.3%
78 f12 115 46.1% 50.4% 50.4% −4.3%
79 l6 319 39.5% 44.1% 46.1% −4.6%
80 j12 335 34.3% 38.9% 56.4% −4.6%
81 i7 168 38.1% 42.7% 46.4% −4.6%
82 h8 353 44.2% 48.9% 53.8% −4.7%
83 j9 346 38.4% 43.2% 56.1% −4.7%
84 h9 183 35.0% 40.0% 53.6% −5.0%
85 d2 59 39.0% 44.1% 3.4% −5.1%
86 l7 378 36.2% 41.5% 42.6% −5.3%
87 k11 460 34.3% 39.8% 53.3% −5.5%
88 j11 319 36.7% 42.2% 53.3% −5.5%
89 e8 258 41.5% 47.0% 51.6% −5.5%
90 j6 323 41.8% 47.6% 49.5% −5.8%
91 k4 137 40.1% 45.9% 27.7% −5.8%
92 e11 66 42.4% 48.2% 45.5% −5.8%
93 g10 123 33.3% 39.1% 58.5% −5.8%
94 d11 87 39.1% 45.1% 46.0% −6.0%
95 k8 209 40.2% 46.2% 60.3% −6.0%
96 h11 262 34.4% 40.6% 52.7% −6.3%
97 i3 171 40.9% 47.5% 21.1% −6.6%
98 f10 225 27.1% 33.7% 54.2% −6.6%
99 f11 60 41.7% 48.6% 45.0% −6.9%
100 g9 133 33.8% 40.9% 60.9% −7.1%
101 i8 255 45.1% 52.2% 52.5% −7.1%
102 l12 2,584 31.2% 38.4% 58.0% −7.3%
103 d10 106 45.3% 52.7% 42.5% −7.4%
104 j3 85 36.5% 43.9% 22.4% −7.5%
105 i12 236 31.4% 38.9% 55.1% −7.5%
106 k12 693 31.0% 38.6% 54.3% −7.5%
107 g12 293 31.4% 39.2% 54.3% −7.8%
108 j7 245 33.5% 41.5% 55.1% −8.0%
109 c1 20 20.0% 28.1% 0.0% −8.1%
110 g8 180 38.3% 46.4% 57.2% −8.1%
111 e2 69 36.2% 44.5% 7.2% −8.2%
112 c2 55 36.4% 45.2% 3.6% −8.8%
113 b1 47 31.9% 40.7% 2.1% −8.8%
114 l10 286 27.6% 36.7% 50.0% −9.1%
115 k3 95 36.8% 45.9% 25.3% −9.1%
116 b2 108 26.9% 36.1% 0.9% −9.2%
117 b11 14 21.4% 31.3% 7.1% −9.9%
118 l11 677 28.1% 38.3% 54.2% −10.2%
119 l5 340 30.9% 41.2% 35.0% −10.4%
120 e1 31 19.4% 31.8% 0.0% −12.4%
121 j2 17 23.5% 36.7% 0.0% −13.2%
122 l1 114 20.2% 33.6% 1.8% −13.4%
123 h1 29 24.1% 37.8% 3.4% −13.6%
124 k1 74 20.3% 33.9% 0.0% −13.6%
125 d1 23 21.7% 36.4% 0.0% −14.7%
126 i2 16 31.3% 47.4% 6.3% −16.1%
127 f1 28 21.4% 38.2% 0.0% −16.7%
128 l2 75 22.7% 39.5% 4.0% −16.8%
129 k2 20 15.0% 36.8% 0.0% −21.8%
130 g2 17 17.6% 40.9% 5.9% −23.3%
131 g1 37 8.1% 31.6% 0.0% −23.5%
132 h2 22 13.6% 39.3% 4.5% −25.6%