On 2020-01-13 at 21:50, nie_wiesz (info) said: |1.d62.g43.m124.m175.r166.r207.o198.l89.d1010.h21 For: 11.i18 - it has a good connection to D10 -> G13 or F15 - it has a good connection to M12 -> L15(!) or J15 - it collaborate well with O19 -> M20 - even alone creates a threat to the bottom -> H20 - for now I can't find anything for black ;/ 12.j20 countered by 13.d20 - what else do we want from a single move?
Well, the obvious move is i18, and I think we can almost play it instantly.
Against m20 we had k19, against H21 it is i18.
We play on the left to reinforce this part and we threat to win directly this way but we keep a good connection to o19 so that all our pieces seem connected, remember that it was the argument of o19... We played this and not t20 precisely for this reason.
This is the move which makes sense for our game and justify our previous moves.
Of course a move like p17 is interesting but it's like... I think if we play this we have to be 100% it's a quick win or we gonna lose. And I don't think it's a quick win for us.
For these reasons I'm already okay for playing i18, this move is totally obvious to me, when d10 for instance was great but maybe "could" need a preparation.
On 2020-01-14 at 04:44, spd_iv (info) said: agree with Maciej and Florian, we can play i18 instantly.
David, I just retrieved your other post, for the analysis. However, I don't actually understand what you meant on the top line. Some trick I don't know about? mc
On 2020-01-14 at 20:04, nie_wiesz said:
|1.d62.g43.m124.m175.r166.r207.o198.l89.d1010.h2111.i1812.h13 For me its still our advantage. Maybe we should try the easiest possible way? I mean if there is a sort of "all in" we should just pick it. If we can't find any all in then we will look for any tactical move.
This move is much more important than previous one. One mistake can cost the game.
My "all in" move finding process I would start with 13.j9 - the easiest one I can think of. We checked earlier that J9 is connected to topside. I still think it is. So then M12 is connected to the topside. black can play: 14.k1215.k1116.m1317.o1318.p1919.p1720.n2021.m2022.l2123.k2124.j22 - doesn't work (we would like to have G17 before to escape from that ladder).
So we can try 13.g17 and then if exists any black move on the left that blocks our J9 threat from connecting to topside then we're in trouble (at least we can't play J9 anymore). There is 14.g11 - 15.j916.l417.f518.i10
Ok so 12.h13 is not enough, then I would pick 13.f15. Black can't respond with 14.g11 because of 15.c12 (the same for 14.f1215.c12). So black is forced to play 14.g15 or 14.e16 (forced moves are good in all in's). Let's play 14.e16 as a better option. Then we can't play 15.g1716.g11 (we studied that and we want to have J9 connected). So maybe which is resistant to 16.g1117.c12 and to 16.f1217.c12. So another forced move by black is 16.f14. Now we can play 17.j9 (which is connected to topside). So now we are protected against 18.p19 except for K16 (but we seems still ok with it):
13.r12 seems to be fine but I don't like it! We already have nice connection between M12 and R16, we don't need to make it better (it's better to use a move somewhere else). But I'm not sure because it creates an important top threat.
There, some hypothetical lines that win. The way I'm going here, they are all total crap, but I'm hoping that ONE of them survives analysis past move 14. !! (meow)
I don't think that 13.h10 is good. We play on the top left and we do not connect our M12 to topside. We let the black in while we gain almost nothing we already had d10 connected to the top and h10 is not a big deal. Example:
that Bot plays 16. k10. I looked at k10 above, although without your moves 14 & 15 thrown in. Yes - with this block we don't reach m12, but the THREAT to reach m12 allows us to reach i18, or the bottom, which still wins. ie.
Hey, I'm not saying my line is great or should be played - believe me, I KNOW my limitations - but I'm having fun with this. Maybe I've got a good idea here, so I'll be most appreciative if you, or anyone else, takes the time to bust it!
In all fairness, I should now devote some analysis to YOUR line, but I've got to go to work. I'll get back here later. (meow)
Thanks David; I knew I could count on you! Too teeny for me to analyze on my phone in car - but I've no doubt I'm exhibiting some of my typical Twixt blindness. I really wish I could rid myself of that - my rating would jump 200 points, easy. But I AM trying to learn. mc
NOTE : I've worked it out so that I CAN play a game move from my car, if need be. If the TEAM arrives at a move, I will play it post haste.
2. Everybody - glad things are going smoothly, and I see a push for 13. F15 . As Maceij said, at this point in the game, even ONE mistake could spell doom. We have 95 hours left at this point; that's 3 days 23 hours. My inclination is to give you guys another day, even if it looks like we are running low. Remember that not ONLY do we get vacation days, but every move gets us 36 hours, even when we are using vacation days (I think).
Tell you what - I'm about to eat a late dinner and watch TV; I'll check before I go to sleep. I will ALSO check in the morning, before work. If I see a big imperative from the Team to move, I will move then - or else, wait for later in the day tomorrow. Remember - time need not be wasted, even if we HAVE a move 13 if we are working on probable replies from Twixtbot and get to move 15 more rapidly! (meow)
TB has to block our left side 14.g15 or 14.e16 he can play also sth like 14.l4 but we can respond with 15.r12: 16.q617.f5 and white has double threat J9 or D14 so probably he wont play 14.l4
I cannot find anything good for black after 13.f15. black is forced to block us on the left and thanks to 14.e1615.h16 (or 14.g1515.h16) our i18 and o19 is connected to the bottom. We can get top for example by q9 or j9. black connot block top and bot using only 1 move so I think we can already play 13.f15 - this is my vote
So assume we play 13.f15. Then black has 2 ways to connect to the left 14.g15 and 14.e16. The 14.e16 is a "better" option for black since it's resistant to 15.g17 or 15.h16. The 14.g15 is not (15.h16 just destroys black).
Why 14.e1615.h16 is not an option for white ? I am not that confident what can happen on the topside - more space - more possibilities. When we already know that white has J9 threat to connect Topside, so we should play around it. But when we play the H16 or G17 then black simply can connect to the left by 16.g11. And now our J9 is not an option for topside (17.d1418.c419.f520.l421.h422.e1023.f924.c1125.j926.i10)!
So I wanted to find something more safe that prevents black from playing G11 and I have found this 14.e1615.e17. Now black can't play 16.g11 because of 17.c1218.f1419.c16...
So I know that 15.g17 is stronger than 15.e17 as it comes to the bottom connection. But E17 is safer when it comes to top connection. I wanted to check if E17 is enough to get bottom. And it seems like it does! That's why I think that 13.f15 is good. Ok Probably I got misunderstood.
so I believe black has to play sth strange like 18.p12
On 2020-01-16 at 10:06, Florian Jamain said:
f15 is the very first move I considered, it's in line with our d10 and I18, but I'm not convinced that it's really the move, don't know actually.
Nevertheless, in some vatriations Maciej you answer to l4 with f5, why not r12 first and then if black blocks top right we still can play f5?
I'll check if I find something or not against f15.
On 2020-01-16 at 10:09, Florian Jamain said:
To be honest it's like I'm a little lost cause I don't understand black position, but maybe he is on something that I don't understand... or maybe he's just not that good. Will see :D
Still not ready, Team? We now have 62 hours left. That's 2 days 14 hours. mc
On 2020-01-17 at 10:13, MisterCat said:
Practically all above analysis is focused on 13. f5 , which I'm ready to play, but waiting for the OK. Yes, it is TRUE that we also have 20 or 30 more days if needed, using vacation days. Will these be needed now? (meow) |1.d62.g43.m124.m175.r166.r207.o198.l89.d1010.h2111.i1812.h13
On 2020-01-17 at 10:26, spd_iv said:
I am ok with 13.f15, but please wait around 10 hours from now. I am going to visit Maciej this evening and we will talk about the GAME and give some feedback.
Others: 19.p1720.k16 or 19.p1720.l15 (one of those two should work for black didn't check it through but the L4 and L8 seems to be connected to the left and right) - black wins
14.l415.t716.p1917.l15 - there are many good playys for black there, let's take one of them: 18.o11 - seems black to me but it's really hard to prove (the N14 19.p1320.n14 and Q12 19.o1320.q12 threats are big)
So maybe R12 is still playable before F15 because we then can play G17 as a counter for P19 (14.p1915.g17) .. but I am afraid that black won't play L4 here so 13.r1214.q10 or 14.o11 or 14.p12 are another tough ones.
So if we do run out of time I vote for 15.f15. If not we could probably check R12 even more and then decide.
I really do like the G17 answer for P19 black's threat!
On 2020-01-17 at 20:24, nie_wiesz said:
There was no time for me and my brother to speculate about the game.
When it comes to vote, we can play either 13.f15 or 13.r12 because we have checked them. I think there is no reason to check other moves (even if they can be better or not).
So i'm fine with r12 and f15.
On 2020-01-18 at 00:45, MisterCat said:
I'm home from work; 47 hours left in regulation time. If I go to sleep and play tomorrow, we lose say, 12 more hours, and we'll be down to 35 hours - less than 2 days. I'd rather not. I'd prefer to move tonight. I know that the Europeans are probably asleep now, waiting to wake up to a move ... !
I looked through the above. I saw lines where F15 wins; I saw lines where F15 loses. Same is true for R12. My inclination is to play F15, which takes the game to the left side. If we win there, hooray. If we get blocked on the left, we still have play in the center, and on the right with R12 coming.
If nobody says anything to me before I go to sleep, I'm playing F15. mc
On 2020-01-18 at 01:05, twixter said:
F15 is fine with me. Many thanks to the brothers Celuch for their work.
On 2020-01-18 at 01:10, twixter said:
And thanks to Florian!
On 2020-01-18 at 01:14, MisterCat said:
OK, thanks David. I am playing that move RIGHT NOW! mc
HOT DIGGITY! We have FINALLY predicted the Twixtbot move CORRECTLY, and there's LOTS OF ANALYSIS already done above on this response. That should help, a lot. (meow)
On 2020-01-18 at 01:21, MisterCat said:
That should be L4! I did a direct copy from Edge to Chrome. I don't know, somehow it changed to I4. The problem is that a capital I looks just like a small l !
Alright, I'll double check and HAND TYPE THIS to get it right:
Nice! I do like 15.f5 or 15.h6 for now. As a part of f15 plan. (we didn't analyze h6 but it might be a little better - of course we must check for any local danger).
fascinating stuff, guys -- it's all totally over my head, but I'm really enjoying following the comments. Since it's all here on the commentator, I can come back to it time and again and hopefully learn something.
On 2020-01-18 at 14:14, MisterCat said:
meanwhile, over at The Twixt Forum, it seems our game has reminded CosimoC of the discussion from 2018 regarding games where no early connections are played. It seems you all participated IN that discussion. Alas, the current lines above look like we are about to ruin the 'perfection' here. (meow)
70 hours remain in regulation, so we could STILL use another 36 hour increment here.
On 2020-01-18 at 14:21, MisterCat said:
Just FYI, I received an email last night from Alan, just AFTER I played the F15 move. He AGREED, in that he preferred it over R12. Since it was too late, he did not post his analysis here, but I will - perhaps there is something useful to see in his comment, anyway! mc
My vote is for 13.f15. All the lines I'm trying look pretty good. Leave the upper right corner clear for now, for a possible run up that side. Starting with r12 could get that corner blocked.
I wouldn't say I am *suggesting* 15.H6. Just exploring it. We should also look at 15.F5. Maybe other possibilities?
On 2020-01-19 at 00:50, MisterCat said:
More specifically, lines with 15. H6 have been looked at above, but showed discouraging results. What Alan has done is a 'rescue' of the 15. H6 line, by extending the analysis further out.
My first concern is that we have had very limited success in predicting the Twixtbot's moves. Yes - we got 14. L4 right, but that hasn't happened a lot. It may happen more now that the game is clarifying. The thing with these extended lines is that they usually become obsolete in a move or two. That makes them optimistic, but not necessarily practical.
What I'm suggesting is analysis that leans more to the theoretical, and less towards the specific. Florian was tending to do that a lot, early on.
Example - is it wishful thinking to connect I18 to the bottom, D6 to the top, and then form a chain from D6 to D10 to F15 to I18 and win? Well, it is not going to be THAT easy, but the threat is there. Can we enforce that threat by also threatening to connect from M12 to D10 (maybe through my favorite hole, H10), and then come around to R16 to O19 and down? If we reach the bottom from either I18 or O19 but are blocked in our chain on the left side, can we work up to the top right, perhaps with Florian's favorite moves like P9 or S10 (had to hunt WAY back to find these) or R12?
Look, I'm not saying that you guys aren't THINKING this way, but you are instead POSTING long lines, which may not come to pass!
Anyway, I'm just throwing out an approach. Take it for what it's worth (not much??) (meow)
On 2020-01-19 at 01:28, Alan Hensel said:
The long lines are just feelers. Look at it this way: my chances of predicting Maciej's moves aren't that much better than predicting TwixtBot's. But I can get a sense of whether the position is winning or losing.
Theoretical discussion might be helpful, but mostly to the non-experts, because the experts are probably all on the same page about the situation, and if not, a feeler line proves the point.
So, the top players see the string of pearls d6-d10-f15-i18, but also see it is not strong because it can be attacked in 3 places, with a black peg at c4, g15, or i20. But the immediate threat is that top one, c4, which might stop us from connecting to the top at all. So either that needs to be mitigated, or there is an outside chance that there is something to play in the upper right quadrant (did you notice that quarter of the board is entirely empty except for M12?) which looks risky but might be worth a look if we convince ourselves that everything in the top left leads to a loss.
On 2020-01-19 at 02:58, MisterCat said:
Thanks for discussing in terms I can understand, Alan. I will continue in this vein. If we assume that C4 from black stops white from reaching the top left, are we not behooved to play C4 ourselves to prevent that? Now, we assume that Twixtbot will attack another weakness - say G15. Ok, with white playing H16, we will either connect up to D10, or if black prevents that, then we head towards M12 by playing J15. Now we are hoping for top right action, but still might be able to steer towards the left. Should the bot play on the top right with P9, then perhaps H10 or J9 might reach a left peg.
Oh well, I'm just thinking out loud, at MY level of understanding and play. Believe me, I am certainly humbled, as a 1750 player, by a crowd of 2300's and above. I am HERE, so may as well say SOMETHING. No real harm done, and perhaps it can help, a teeny, tiny bit! Here - I'll paste everything I've just said, below:
Imagine the same lines but replace C4 to 15.f5 or 15.h6. Only 15.h6 is winning for white.
It is a good example to show the H6 potential and why it could be a better try than F5 (F5 is improved version of C4).
But if h6 has a local weakness then we should just play F5. Of course we can still play on the right but for me it does not make any sense if we decided to play f15.
If I have time today I will do some more analysis on h6 vs f5 in PC (its not easy on the phone).
On 2020-01-19 at 05:44, nie_wiesz said:
But to be honest I do not like g15 for black. I have explained it some posts above. E16 or F17 is better for black
On 2020-01-19 at 05:55, nie_wiesz said:
M.C. in your last line Black probably can just play K10 (not M10 or P9) to connect to the right edge and End the game instantly. Nevertheless M10 can be used as a good example of H16 strength.
David, I don't think that p17 should be considered as an immediate respond to p19. White looses the m20 threat..I think it is much better to play on the different part of the board. For example:
Bob, I think 17.g13 would work. Maybe Maciej is just instinctively protecting the d10 peg. But if it turns out the d10 peg is safe, then 17.d14 would be even better as it's better connected to the bottom: 18.j2019.f2120.f2021.e1922.e1823.d17 or 20.f1721.d18. Is protecting d10 a concern? I think 18.e10 was mentioned as a possibility earlier, but that seems safe - 19.f1120.g1121.e822.c423.f5. Maybe I am missing something, but it's probably just an example.
If everything above is for white that means 16.g8 is loosing for black.
I personally can't find anything that could be a local danger for h6 (16.h717.c12 - similar scenario).
So my vote in a battle F5 vs H6 is for 15.h6. I don't see any advantage of 15.f5 that 15.h6 would not have (because there is no any local danger like G8/H7 which David have tried).
--------- 16.p19 ------------ David, I am sorry. Your last line is actually good for white, so maybe p17 is still playable after p19 ?
hey, mc (that would be the master of ceremonies, right?) -- I'm wondering if it might be helpful to press a bit for a consensus -- vs just letting the discussion die out
I was GOING to press, Bob, about 3 hours ago - in my taxi, but then I got busy with work. Home now. The trouble is, the brothers are asleep, as is most of Europe. We've got Twixter and Alan in THIS country, besides us. I hope they reply soon.
WE HAVE 37 HOURS LEFT IN REGULATION.
I will try to read through the above analysis, If it APPEARS that people are happy with 15.h6, then I'll play it, BEFORE I go to sleep.
mc
On 2020-01-19 at 23:11, Alan Hensel said:
15.h6 feels good to me intuitively, and seems to check out. I like it.
Maciej has already voted for 15.h6. Michal hasn't been in the discussion for this move. I'd like to hear from David, though.
On 2020-01-19 at 23:15, MisterCat said:
thanks for chiming in, Alan. Of course, Bob approves as well. No word from Florian or Michal, but they are asleep. I'll give it an hour - one more hour won't kill us. I expect Twixter to agree, but if no word opposed, I'll move.
Just getting to this now - maybe David ALREADY approves in some lines he posts above. I'll give a look. (meow)
On 2020-01-20 at 00:00, bob440 said:
ahem -- to say "Bob approves as well" elevates me to a status I do not think I have yet acheived
On 2020-01-20 at 00:31, MisterCat said:
TEAMwork, Bob; teamwork! The move has been made over 30 minutes ago. It is unusual for the Bot to take this long. Perhaps he is offline. Perhaps he has crashed! Perhaps he can not handle the strain of calculating against all the excellent moves we have been hitting it with!
I have to go to sleep, eventually. If somebody ELSE beats me to the post, check on the game, and if the Bot moves, post it here. At least we are not losing time now, and we have a nice 73 hours. (mc)
On 2020-01-20 at 04:22, Florian Jamain said:
No time to analyze a lot but h6 is a move I like, seems to be a better version of f5 to me.
Is TwixtBot going bonkers? 17.f7 threatening d2 or i4. That would seem to be a clear improvement in our position. Is there anything even stronger?
On 2020-01-20 at 13:49, MCx said:
WE MAY have won. TB plays 50,000 trial games from every square on the board, and picks the one with the best percentage of wins. But what if they are ALL losing? Now, it might be grasping at straws, inviting us to make a mistake.
That's my best surmise, unless corrected by BonyJordan. mc
On 2020-01-20 at 13:59, Florian Jamain said:
GG guys :D
Most ridiculous possible move from the Bot? :D
On 2020-01-20 at 14:03, Florian Jamain said:
Nevertheless, it does not mean we can play easy until the end.
The thing it means is the following : The bit thinks we are winning, and in the best variation for him, these two moves don't change anything to the position. It means that he will try a final attack somewhere the variation won't change with these moves. I already saw him doing this when I played against him one year ago.
On 2020-01-20 at 14:50, nie_wiesz said:
|1.d62.g43.m124.m175.r166.r207.o198.l89.d1010.h2111.i1812.h1313.f1514.l415.h616.d3 It looks like TB don't care about top-right corner and it's just filling some space - making more space for further calculations? Or TB knows that it's over and just trying to fool/confuse us by using forcing moves. Like he did in game against David , where David could probably win. It is pretty obvious for me that we have a very few options right now, only a few moves can be played.
17.f7 and 17.f5 seem to make the most sense. 17.E8 is a little risky. Do we play safe? 17.f5 seems like an improvement without any casualties. J5 will be played by black anyway. However 17.f7 gives to black c5 (18.j519.d220.c5) or i5 (18.j519.g320.i5) for free. On the other hand is there a way that black can use C5 peg? I mean the scenario like this: 17.f718.j519.i420.i321.d222.c523.e4, 24.g10?
Hmm... for me it just looks like TB gives himself a place to play J5.
On 2020-01-20 at 15:46, MCx said:
Good Maceij; we must not let up! The Bot knows it has lost, but will keep challenging us to play correctly. A slip up now could tilt the game back in it's favor!
Teamwork will still be required, to play error free. Anybody, at any time, could err; the point is, proposed moves are being analyzed and CHECKED. Let us finish off the Twixtbot, and then I will post another of my essays at the LG Forum discussing the ramifications. I'll bet you can hardly wait!
Oh, and Maceij, thanks for that instructive post yesterday night. mc
On 2020-01-20 at 16:01, Florian Jamain said:
The threat of c5 was also the first thing I watched but honestly... it's just nothing to me so we should play f7.
Btw I don't think f5 or f7 is a difference for TB.
Yeah, that's right! D3 makes sense! It's like I said before "for me it just looks like TB gives himself a place to play J5" but in that time I didn't analyze deeper. But now when I check it it is clear to me that D3 was necessary for J5 (if Black wanted to attack left with E10). Look at both scenarios:
a) 16.e1017.f918.j5 - stop here for a moment - for example 19.c12 and the top connection is given by 20.d321.g3 / 20.c421.g3 - easy win for white (we gained 1 extra move)
b) 16.d317.f718.e1019.f920.j5 - stop here for a moment - we are forced to play on the top corner (21.c1222.f2 - do not work), so we do not gain an extra move.
Only in the second scenario the J5 is a black's threat.
Tb will wait with j5 (not necessarily here 20.j5) if i4 (not necessarily here 21.i4) is helpful for us and will play it in the correct moment when we will not be able to play i4 or if i4 won't have an effect. Or if i4 do not help us in any scenario he can play it directly 20.j521.i4...
Now I just woke up! Above post: I SEEM TO HAVE BEEN TYPING ONE SET OF MOVES WHILE MAKING A DIFFERENT SET OF MOVES! OK, disregard above starting from 'but HERE, guys," and substitute the moves below. I hope I'm posting right THIS TIME. (doesn't mean the moves are any good) mc
Thanks David. So against my 23. L11 , I only considered the defense 24. i12 for black, but neglected to consider the more effective 24. L13 for black, which kills me.
NOW, against my 23. J11 , I only considered above the defense 24. i11 for black, which white can beat as shown. I am thinking that I am MISSING the more important, and perhaps obvious defense for black that is more effective than 24. i11 . One could argue that I can learn more by trying to figure this out on my own, but I give up easily.
OH!! There it is - after the word 'or'. You DID answer my question, with 24. J9 ! OK, my bad. You may disregard my current question, Twixter. mc
On 2020-01-21 at 19:51, MisterCat said:
OK Team, I just played through every single line above; David's busts of mine, Maceij's alternatives, Michal's reply for Alan's move i10, etc. I wish I were more encouraged - now, it appears that we can win, but it is not looking to be routine or easy. Resources keep appearing for Twixtbot that we have to scramble to deal with. Perhaps we were celebrating too soon??
It appears that team Celuch is sold on 19. F9 and have offered up some reasoning and defense for this move, and are stopping there. I guess, then, if nobody has anything to add or object to, I shall be playing this, but I will give a few more hours. mc
It is around this time in the Eastern U.S. evening that we seem to lose the Europeans. Must be sleepy-time over there. This leaves basically Alan and David to discuss matters (not counting the sub - 2000 players), and Alan has just shown a SCARY situation. Heck - TB comes RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER in that line - left side to right side! If THAT happens, it would be quite embarrassing!
So I am prepared to wait until tomorrow, if need be, for this situation to be analyzed and resolved; hopefully, In our favor. Time for players: 77/240 (meow)
Probably still missing something. Maybe a line that includes j5.
On 2020-01-21 at 21:26, MisterCat said:
We shall wait. Meanwhile, we have Alan's 21. K11 vs. MY 21. J11 (roar!!), and THESE are proposed replies to something that has not happened yet - will TB reply to 19. F9 with 20. D12 ? Perhaps. Either way, this is good that we are planning ahead, so analysis is not wasted here.
Tomorrow I work - drive around and around and around in my taxi; I will keep checking - primarily to see if the TEAM remains sold on 19. F9 . As long as this stays the move of choice, and nobody improves upon it, I SHALL make the move; tomorrow! mc
Did I say k11? I remember saying 19.i10, and 20.k11 was one of Michal's responses showing that path to be treacherous. He didn't explore 21.h12, though. Is that not a strong reply?
K11 looks equivalent to F9 - we could start with 19.k11 and then 20.j921.f922.d1223.g11 - that's just a reordering of the line being explored for F9. Is it? I haven't proven it, but it might be a more straightforward way to get the same result on the right side as starting with 19.f9. If we can prove that k11 connects to the top, I like it very much.
You are right, Monsieur le chat, we don't know if TB will reply to 19.f9 with 20.d12, but it is a good stand-in for other replies as well. I explored 20.e16 and I think it plays out pretty similar to 20.d12. TB has to play along the left side if we play 19.f9, because of our latent d14 threat, but it is possible he'll play lower than 20.e16 ... we should probably look at that.
But some black moves are not clear for me in the scenario above, which are 24.f12 and 22.j9 and 20.d12 - not good for black! Here is why I don't like them:
D12: 20.d1221.e13 and 21.d14 threats can be used by white player but here 20.c11 it's not possible. We can gain 21.l10 as we wish only if black plays 20.d12 -> 21.e1322.c1423.h1024.g1125.l10. I am not so sure about this but 20.c11 seems just a better option for black to me. But probably C11 vs D12 doesn't matter at all since we can just play K11 in both scenarios 20.d1221.k11, 20.c1121.k11.
For now I don't know which is the best 19.f919.k1119.i10 - it's not an easy task.
my 19. G9 got trashed above by David, but now I'm reminded of my old move 19. H10 . Has that been trashed lately? Maybe it has; I can't find the analysis. H10 threatens connections to D10, H6, and M12 (20. G1121. J11).
Well, I'm throwing it into the mix right now, along with 19. F9 (Maceij, Michal), 19. K11 (also Alan) , and 19. I10 (Alan). Perhaps we need some new blood here? David? Florian? Bob?
This is day 2 of move 19 analysis, so let us TRY to get this done. (meow) Time for players: 64/240
On 2020-01-22 at 10:16, Alan Hensel said:
I don't think we should be strongly associating moves with people. Who cares?
For example, I think you (mc) mistakenly attributed k11 to me; all I did was analyze your mistake and found it to be good.
I still like K11.
On 2020-01-22 at 10:32, MisterCat said:
Not trying to 'credit' anybody with moves, Alan. What I was attempting to summarize is my feeling that at this point you, Maceij, and spd_iv are pretty much 'sold' on moves, far as I can tell in the above analysis, and therefor I am encouraging some comments from the other players - who we have not heard from in several hours (or days). Of course, the 3 of you no doubt can still contribute to move 19.
I had the feeling that you guys were getting a bit winded at this point (Maceij made a remark to that effect: " it's not an easy task."; so did you: "I've been staring at it too long"). Rest assured - at no point in this entire experiment have I EVER intended to apply 'credit' or 'blame' to anybody for anything. However - I DO tend to joke around a bit, and perhaps my attempts at humor can be misinterpreted. If THAT is the case, I apologize. mc.
On 2020-01-22 at 16:39, Florian Jamain said:
F9 is safe cause it is easy to predict, then if we don't find anything good for black against it, we should play it.
If there is a doubt, playing i10 is maybe the key.
Move List
TXT
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13
mc
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21
My suggestion is: 11.i18
12.j20 13.d20 14.e18 15.d15 16.c17 17.g17 18.f20 19.m20
On 2020-01-13 at 21:39, nie_wiesz (info) said:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21
For: 11.i18
12.j20 13.d20 14.e18 15.d15 16.c17 17.g17 18.g19 19.m20
12.m21 13.f15
-- 14.i19 15.k19 16.k20 17.p21
-- 14.j20 15.k17 16.n19 17.p21 (D20 or R12 white threats)
12.g19 13.f15 14.m21 15.k19 16.k22 17.p21
12.p19 13.f15 14.j20 15.m20
On 2020-01-13 at 21:50, nie_wiesz (info) said:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21
For: 11.i18
- it has a good connection to D10 -> G13 or F15
- it has a good connection to M12 -> L15(!) or J15
- it collaborate well with O19 -> M20
- even alone creates a threat to the bottom -> H20
- for now I can't find anything for black ;/ 12.j20 countered by 13.d20
- what else do we want from a single move?
On 2020-01-13 at 21:56, nie_wiesz (info) said:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18
Last but not least: 12.j20 was used earlier in our analysis (10.j20 11.i18) and it seems the same as (10.j20 11.i18 12.h21 which is not too good for black) for now I think 13.d20 really destroys black but of course we could also play something like 13.m20 or 13.g17 14.d21 15.m20 as we wish
On 2020-01-13 at 22:10, nie_wiesz (info) said:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.g15 is good black try!
For example (just to show one of the top battle possibilities): 13.m20 14.c6 15.b5 16.e7 17.c7 18.d9 19.b9 20.e11 21.e12 22.f13 but in spite of all 12.g15 looks good for white
On 2020-01-13 at 22:47, twixter (info) said:
I just want to mention a resource for white that might help us here.
If we have a battle in the top right at some point, probably not immediately, q8 is stronger than I first thought.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.q8 this is stupid right here 12.o11 13.o13 14.l4 15.q12 16.q6 17.q4 18.r8 19.s9 20.p4 21.o3 22.t9 23.n5 24.p9 25.m7 and the only local answer is 26.m10
Maybe we could use this later.
Well, the obvious move is i18, and I think we can almost play it instantly.
Against m20 we had k19, against H21 it is i18.
We play on the left to reinforce this part and we threat to win directly this way but we keep a good connection to o19 so that all our pieces seem connected, remember that it was the argument of o19... We played this and not t20 precisely for this reason.
This is the move which makes sense for our game and justify our previous moves.
Of course a move like p17 is interesting but it's like... I think if we play this we have to be 100% it's a quick win or we gonna lose. And I don't think it's a quick win for us.
For these reasons I'm already okay for playing i18, this move is totally obvious to me, when d10 for instance was great but maybe "could" need a preparation.
On 2020-01-14 at 04:44, spd_iv (info) said:
agree with Maciej and Florian, we can play i18 instantly.
On 2020-01-14 at 05:37, nie_wiesz (info) said:
as a black player i would answer |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.i14 which still is interesting: 13.l15 14.l4 15.g13 16.c4 17.o8 18.q4 19.o4 20.p19 21.k17 22.n7 23.n10 24.o5 25.g3 26.g15 27.i12 28.k10 29.k11 30.f2 31.h5 32.h6 33.i7 34.i9 35.g8 36.g10 37.e9 38.e11 39.e12 - my white win example
On 2020-01-14 at 05:46, nie_wiesz (info) said:
another interesting one: (still white wins) |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.i14 13.l15 14.k15 15.k17 16.l4 17.o8 18.p4 19.r5 20.s3 21.u4 22.t4 23.q3 24.q2 25.t2 26.s6 27.n6
On 2020-01-14 at 06:04, nie_wiesz (info) said:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.i14 13.l15 14.l4 this game still will be hard ;-)
On 2020-01-14 at 06:07, nie_wiesz (info) said:
But yes, there is no other as good move as 11.i18 at the moment, so we can play it instanlty.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 ...
12. H13 .
my first idea is:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15:
sth like 14.g15 15.r12 16.p19 17.p17 18.n20 19.h20 20.g19 21.i22 22.l19 23.h16 24.e14 25.e12 26.c15 27.j15
not sure if 13.j15 works: 14.K16 - doesnt look good
maybe 13.j9?
13.j9 14.p14 15.o13 16.q16 17.p17 18.o12 19.l15 20.n15 21.k17
14.l4 15.f5 16.j12 17.k11 18.o13 19.l15 20.p19 21.k17 22.j22 23.n21 24.l19 25.p17 26.n15 27.r11 28.q12 29.q13 30.r10 31.s9 32.r5 33.q8
-16.k16 17.g17 18.o13 19.d14
-16.l21 and? 17.g17?
--18.f14 19.r12 20.p21 21.m20 22.n22 23.k21 24.j22 25.f19
On 2020-01-14 at 14:54, spd_iv (info) said:
sory, mistake in last line
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.j9 14.l4 15.f5 16.l21 17.g17 18.f14 19.r12 20.p21 21.m20 22.n22 23.k21 24.j22 25.f19 and 26.f22 but white can play 25.d20
On 2020-01-14 at 15:02, spd_iv (info) said:
or just |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.r12
-14.p19 15.g17 16.g11 17.d14 18.e10 19.f9 20.c11 21.b11 22.a12 23.r8 24.o17 25.l15
Sorry MC but there is this browser feature “tabs” 😄
Michal suggested
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.r12 14.p19 15.g17 16.g11 17.d14 18.e10 19.f9 20.c11 21.b11 22.a12 23.r8 24.o17 25.l15
Is 16.l4 17.f5 18.g11 any good for black?
David, I just retrieved your other post, for the analysis. However, I don't actually understand what you meant on the top line. Some trick I don't know about?
mc
For me its still our advantage. Maybe we should try the easiest possible way? I mean if there is a sort of "all in" we should just pick it. If we can't find any all in then we will look for any tactical move.
This move is much more important than previous one. One mistake can cost the game.
My "all in" move finding process I would start with 13.j9 - the easiest one I can think of. We checked earlier that J9 is connected to topside. I still think it is. So then M12 is connected to the topside.
black can play:
14.k12 15.k11 16.m13 17.o13 18.p19 19.p17 20.n20 21.m20 22.l21 23.k21 24.j22 - doesn't work (we would like to have G17 before to escape from that ladder).
So we can try 13.g17 and then if exists any black move on the left that blocks our J9 threat from connecting to topside then we're in trouble (at least we can't play J9 anymore). There is 14.g11 - 15.j9 16.l4 17.f5 18.i10
Ok so 12.h13 is not enough, then I would pick 13.f15. Black can't respond with 14.g11 because of 15.c12 (the same for 14.f12 15.c12). So black is forced to play 14.g15 or 14.e16 (forced moves are good in all in's). Let's play 14.e16 as a better option. Then we can't play 15.g17 16.g11 (we studied that and we want to have J9 connected). So maybe which is resistant to 16.g11 17.c12 and to 16.f12 17.c12. So another forced move by black is 16.f14. Now we can play
17.j9 (which is connected to topside). So now we are protected against 18.p19 except for K16 (but we seems still ok with it):
18.p14 19.l15 20.k18 21.j16 22.i19 23.d19
18.n15 19.r12 20.p19 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.k21 26.j22 27.d19 28.i19 29.k19
18.l15 19.r12 (similar reason as above example)
18.k12 19.k11 20.n15 21.r12
18.l19 19.l15 20.k12 21.k11 22.l14 23.j14 24.i11 25.n14 - white wins, still connected to the top (26.j7 27.h10)
18.k16 19.r12 20.p19 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.k21 26.j22 27.d19 28.f20 29.e21 30.h19 31.j16 32.j14 33.k19
Until here |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.f14 17.j9 I can't see a black way and moves are pretty forced. So where I made mistake?
I have created a few different variations and it's pretty hard to not make a mistake...
13.r12 14.p19 15.f15 16.j20 17.m20 18.l4 19.f5 20.g11 21.k19 22.e12 23.t7 24.o17 25.l15 26.n14 - black wins! (27.o13 28.p13 29.p11 30.j14 31.n16 32.o16 or 27.m13 28.o11)
21.p17 22.q4 23.c12 24.k18 25.d20 26.e17 (27.g19 28.g18 29.e18 30.d15 or 27.e18 28.d15 29.e13 30.f19 31.j9 32.i10 33.k11 34.j8 35.j16 36.i15 ) - black wins!
18.p14 19.l15 20.k18 21.j16 22.i19 23.d19
18.n15 19.r12 20.p19 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.k21 26.j22 27.d19 28.i19 29.k19
18.l15 19.r12 (similar reason as above example)
18.k12 19.k11 20.n15 21.r12
18.l19 19.l15 20.k12 21.k11 22.l14 23.j14 24.i11 25.n14 - white wins, still connected to the top (26.j7 27.h10)
18.k16 19.r12 20.p19 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.k21 26.j22 27.d19 28.f20 29.e21 30.h19 31.j16 32.j14 33.k19
It's possible that I won't be available for a while (just quick check without greater analysis).
13.r12 seems to be fine but I don't like it! We already have nice connection between M12 and R16, we don't need to make it better (it's better to use a move somewhere else). But I'm not sure because it creates an important top threat.
About 13.j9
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.j9 14.l19 15.p17 16.m21 17.t17 18.l4 19.f5 20.o13 - not sure (white?)
About 13.r12 maybe then 14.p19 15.l15?
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.r12 14.p19 15.l15 16.l4 17.t7 18.n14 19.k13 20.o11 21.p13 22.n18
13.h10 14.g11 15.i8 16.i10 17.j10 18.k11 19.l11
13.h10 14.k10 15.g12 16.j12 17.h14 18.i15 19.i16 20.k16 21.j20
13.h10 14.j12 15.l10 16.k10 17.p8 18.n9 19.o10 20.o11 21.p12 22.p13 23.q14
13.h10 14.o14 15.p15 16.m13 17.o13 18.l11 19.l10 20.k9 21.p8
13.h10 14.j12 15.l10 16.k10 17.p8 18.n9 19.q10 20.o11 21.r12
There, some hypothetical lines that win. The way I'm going here, they are all total crap, but I'm hoping that ONE of them survives analysis past move 14. !! (meow)
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13
119 hours left; that's 4 days, 23 hours.
mc
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.f14 17.j9 18.l15 19.r12 20.p19 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.k21 26.j22 27.d19 28.f20 29.c21 30.h19 31.j16 32.j18 33.k14 34.l4 35.f5 36.j12 37.m13 38.k10 39.t7 - white wins.
I don't think that 13.h10 is good. We play on the top left and we do not connect our M12 to topside. We let the black in while we gain almost nothing we already had d10 connected to the top and h10 is not a big deal. Example:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.h10 14.l4 15.h6 16.k10
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.h10 14.l4 15.h6
that Bot plays 16. k10. I looked at k10 above, although without your moves 14 & 15 thrown in. Yes - with this block we don't reach m12, but the THREAT to reach m12 allows us to reach i18, or the bottom, which still wins. ie.
17. g12 18. j12 19. h14 20. i15 21. i16 22. i17 23. g17 24. i19 25. d20 .
Hey, I'm not saying my line is great or should be played - believe me, I KNOW my limitations - but I'm having fun with this. Maybe I've got a good idea here, so I'll be most appreciative if you, or anyone else, takes the time to bust it!
In all fairness, I should now devote some analysis to YOUR line, but I've got to go to work. I'll get back here later.
(meow)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.g17 16.f14 17.q9 simpler? For example 18.o11 19.p11 20.q12 21.n10 22.n15 23.l15
MC, 11.i18 12.h13 13.h10 14.l4 15.h6 16.k10 17.g12 18.i15 19.i13 20.k14
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.f14 17.j9 18.n15
NOTE : I've worked it out so that I CAN play a game move from my car, if need be. If the TEAM arrives at a move, I will play it post haste.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.f14 17.j9 18.n15 19.r12 looks similar to Maciejs line 20.p19 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.k21 26.j22 27.d19 28.f20 29.c21 30.h19 31.j16 32.j18 33.k14
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.h10 , you AND Maceij both tell me that 14. L4 must be replied with 15. H6 . WHY? Is it BECAUSE 15. H6 threatens the following block on top, which was not there previously? 14.l4 15.j11 16.d3 17.f5 18.f2 19.h4 20.i3 21.j3 22.k2 ? Is that the whole point? No way to reach the top now? Maybe I'm learning something from this.
2. Everybody - glad things are going smoothly, and I see a push for 13. F15 . As Maceij said, at this point in the game, even ONE mistake could spell doom. We have 95 hours left at this point; that's 3 days 23 hours. My inclination is to give you guys another day, even if it looks like we are running low. Remember that not ONLY do we get vacation days, but every move gets us 36 hours, even when we are using vacation days (I think).
Tell you what - I'm about to eat a late dinner and watch TV; I'll check before I go to sleep. I will ALSO check in the morning, before work. If I see a big imperative from the Team to move, I will move then - or else, wait for later in the day tomorrow. Remember - time need not be wasted, even if we HAVE a move 13 if we are working on probable replies from Twixtbot and get to move 15 more rapidly!
(meow)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.h10 14.l4 15.j11 16.d3 loses to 17.d2
BUT 16.c4 17.f5 18.e3 19.h4 20.i3 21.j3 22.k2 and white is cut off.
Good Night.
mc
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.g15
If 15.e17 16.e14 17.j9 18.l15 19.r12 20.p19 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.k21 26.j22 27.d19 28.f20 29.c21 30.h19 31.j16 32.f17 black wins.
So how about 15.g17 16.e14 17.q9 for example 18.o11 19.p11 20.q12 21.n10
If this pattern works against g15 then it should also work against e16. And, it seems simpler.
TB has to block our left side 14.g15 or 14.e16 he can play also sth like 14.l4 but we can respond with 15.r12:
16.q6 17.f5 and white has double threat J9 or D14 so probably he wont play 14.l4
example: 14.g15 15.h16 16.e14 17.j9 18.j14 19.r12 20.p19 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.k21 26.j22 27.d20 or
14.e16 15.h16 16.f14 17.j9 18.k12 19.k11 20.o13 21.l15 22.n15 23.k13 24.j20 25.k17 26.l19 27.f20 28.e20 29.d19 30.f22 31.c21
I cannot find anything good for black after 13.f15. black is forced to block us on the left and thanks to 14.e16 15.h16 (or 14.g15 15.h16) our i18 and o19 is connected to the bottom. We can get top for example by q9 or j9. black connot block top and bot using only 1 move so I think we can already play 13.f15 - this is my vote
So assume we play 13.f15. Then black has 2 ways to connect to the left 14.g15 and 14.e16. The 14.e16 is a "better" option for black since it's resistant to 15.g17 or 15.h16. The 14.g15 is not (15.h16 just destroys black).
Why 14.e16 15.h16 is not an option for white ? I am not that confident what can happen on the topside - more space - more possibilities. When we already know that white has J9 threat to connect Topside, so we should play around it. But when we play the H16 or G17 then black simply can connect to the left by 16.g11. And now our J9 is not an option for topside (17.d14 18.c4 19.f5 20.l4 21.h4 22.e10 23.f9 24.c11 25.j9 26.i10)!
So I wanted to find something more safe that prevents black from playing G11 and I have found this 14.e16 15.e17. Now black can't play 16.g11 because of 17.c12 18.f14 19.c16...
So I know that 15.g17 is stronger than 15.e17 as it comes to the bottom connection. But E17 is safer when it comes to top connection. I wanted to check if E17 is enough to get bottom. And it seems like it does! That's why I think that 13.f15 is good.
Ok Probably I got misunderstood.
David, I do agree that that line is bad for black
But what if |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.k18 ?
- 23.k11 24.o13 25.n15 26.n14 27.p14 28.l13 29.q12 30.o11 31.s7 32.s5 - black wins
- 23.n10 24.k11 25.k13 26.i12 27.r7 28.q12 29.o15 30.o13 31.m14 32.o8 - black wins
I think we should wait with 13.f15 ...
Sorry my bad:)
I knew that I18 is bad against such ladder (and knew that M20 or K19 is a better way but I forgot about it)
Why I thought 19.p17? Because I thought that we do not have escape from the ladder:
19.o13 20.p19 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.k21 26.j22 27.d19 28.f20 29.e21 30.i19
But we can play
19.o13 20.p19 21.k19 22.l20 23.j16 which should be fine ...
Please guys check it! If it's fine I vote for 13.f15.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.f14 17.r12? I think r12 is better than j9 here.
18.k18 19.p17 20.q6 21.j9
so I believe black has to play sth strange like 18.p12
Nevertheless, in some vatriations Maciej you answer to l4 with f5, why not r12 first and then if black blocks top right we still can play f5?
I'll check if I find something or not against f15.
13.r12 what would black do? 14.p19? 14.g11?
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.f14 17.j9 18.k18 19.o13 20.p19 21.k19 22.l20 23.j16 24.l4 25.e4 26.j12 27.k11 28.l15
17.r12 18.k18 19.p17 20.q6 21.j9
white should play 17.r12 instead of 17.j9:
First, are you sure that |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.f14 17.r12 18.k18 19.p17 20.q6 21.j9
is a white win? It seems to be the case.
So after 13.r12 do we still can play F15?
13.r12 14.p19 15.f15 16.l4 17.f5 18.g11 19.c12 20.j20 21.d20 22.e17 23.g19 24.g18 25.e18 26.d15 27.h16 28.f14 29.t7 30.q10 - black wins?! (31.s10 32.o17 33.k13 34.p12)
13.r12 14.p19 15.f15 16.l4 17.f5 18.g11 19.c12 20.j20 21.p17 22.n20 23.m20 24.l21 25.d20 26.e17 27.e18 28.d15 29.g17 30.f14 - black wins!!
13.r12 14.p19 15.f15 16.l4 17.f5 18.g11 19.c12 20.j20 21.k17 22.l19 23.p17 24.n20 25.d20 26.e17 27.e18 28.d15 29.g17 30.f14 - black wins!!
The bottom ladder is not the option!
13.r12 14.p19 15.p17 16.n20 17.m20 18.l21 19.k21 20.j22 21.d20 22.e18 - black wins!!
So 13.f15 can be played like this |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.l4 17.f5 18.f14 and now 19.r12 makes more sense that as 13th move (see examples above) - here what if 20.p12 or 20.q10 (For some reason I don't like to use 3 moves M12 R12 and R16 while M12 and R16 has a good connection already)?
13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.l4 17.f5 18.f14 19.j9 20.k18 21.k19 22.l20 23.j16 24.k22 25.d19 26.g19 27.g17 28.d23 29.f22 30.e22 31.c21 32.b22 33.d21 34.g23 35.e23 36.j12 37.l10 38.l15 39.l14 40.k13 41.p17 but P9 is also a good one? More simple?
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.h16 16.f14 17.j9 18.p19 19.p17 20.n20 21.m20 22.l21 23.k21 24.j22 black wins.
Could someone please show me what is wrong with 15.g17 16.f14 17.q9
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.g17 16.l4 17.f5 18.g11 19.q9
I think this is not good for white
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.r12 14.p19 15.l15 is better than 15.f15.
Florian im almost sure |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.f14 17.r12 18.k18 19.p17 20.q6 21.j9 is white win
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.e16 15.e17 16.f14 17.r12
But is it winning for white?
It seems good but I'm not sure.
mc
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.f5 16.e16 17.e17 18.f14 19.r12 20.p19 21.l15 22.o17 23.k13
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.f5 16.g11 17.c12 18.j20 19.f20 20.f17 21.h16 22.g19 23.m20 24.k18 25.r12 26.q6 27.k13
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.f5 16.g11 17.c12 18.j20 19.d20 20.e16 21.e17 22.d18 23.e13 24.f17 25.h16 26.g19 27.k13 28.p19 29.m20 30.k18 31.p17 32.o13 33.p15 34.n15 35.r11
17.f9 18.c11 19.g11 20.f12 21.k11 22.p19 23.l15 24.k18 25.k19 26.l20 (27.g17 28.j16 or 27.j16 28.j21 29.d20 30.e18 31.e17) - black wins
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.f5 16.g11 17.c12 18.j20 19.d20 20.e16 21.e17 22.d18 23.e13 24.f17 25.h16 26.g19 27.l15
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.f5 16.e10 17.f9 18.c11 19.g11 20.f12 21.k11 22.p19 23.l15 24.k18 25.k19 26.l20 27.j16 28.j21 29.f20 ?
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.f5 16.e10 17.f9 18.c11 19.g11 20.f12 21.r12 22.p19 23.l15 24.k18 25.j20?
hmm, maybe you're right. I'm not able to think, just saw the E10 and got scared :-)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.r12 fe. 16.o11 but TB can play sth simillar to cut us off. I think if F5 is safer because it is easier to predict black moves and if it is direct win why not to play f5?
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.r12 16.o11 and
17.l15 18.c4
17.f5 18.e16 19.e17 20.f14 21.j9... 22.l12 23.k13 24.j13 25.i14 26.i11 27.l10 28.h8 29.k7 30.j5 31.i8 32.f6 33.g9 34.f9 35.f11 maybe is winnable but not sure where black would play the 22nd move (if O11 is the earlier O11 is the correct one :P )
We are on TB ground, just hope we did not forget something!
Btw if we fail we still can say it is cause of Michal :D
this look like black win..
27.l10 28.f6 29.f9
mc
(meow)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13
F20:
19.f20 20.e22 21.c21 22.b21 23.k17 24.l19 25.p17 26.k16 - black wins
23.e23 24.g21 25.d21 26.f19 27.e18 28.d15 29.g17 30.f14 31.t7 32.q10 33.l10 34.k6 - black wins (35.s11 36.t9 37.r8 38.r10 39.m8 40.p4)
Seems like 19.f20 is loosing...
D20:
Then maybe 19.d20 20.e17 21.e18 22.d15 23.g17 24.f14 - same situation - black wins
19.d20 20.e17 21.g19 22.f14 - black wins
Others:
19.p17 20.k16 or 19.p17 20.l15 (one of those two should work for black didn't check it through but the L4 and L8 seems to be connected to the left and right) - black wins
19.m20 20.k18 - black wins
19.d20 20.e17 21.g17 22.f19 23.m20 24.k18
So white has to play like G17:
19.g17 20.d21 21.m20 22.k18 - and now we can play R12 or Q9 or something else. The situation for white seems good.
----------------------------------------
13.r12
14.l4 15.t7 16.p19 17.p17 - is not an option because of 18.n20 19.m20 20.l21 21.k21 22.j22 - black wins (100%)!
14.l4 15.t7 16.p19 17.l15 - there are many good playys for black there, let's take one of them: 18.o11 - seems black to me but it's really hard to prove (the N14 19.p13 20.n14 and Q12 19.o13 20.q12 threats are big)
if 19.p11 20.o17 21.o13 22.j20 - 23.f20 24.e22 25.c21 26.b21 or 23.d20 24.e18 - black wins!
else if 19.p11 20.o17 21.g17 22.q10 23.s10 24.n14 - 25.o13 26.j14 or 25.n16 26.o16
if 19.p13 20.o17 - similar to previous one
That's why I have tried 17.f15 here (a few posts back with few examples proving that it would be hard for white). We could also try:
17.g17 seems like a good try now!
if 18.o17 19.d14 20.c4 21.f5 22.e3 23.h4 24.i3 hmm looks like white 25.o11 with L15 or J9 threats?
So maybe R12 is still playable before F15 because we then can play G17 as a counter for P19 (14.p19 15.g17) .. but I am afraid that black won't play L4 here so 13.r12 14.q10 or 14.o11 or 14.p12 are another tough ones.
So if we do run out of time I vote for 15.f15. If not we could probably check R12 even more and then decide.
Are there any other options?
13.q9 14.o11 15.p11 16.l4 17.t6 18.p19 19.g17 seems also good for white
I really do like the G17 answer for P19 black's threat!
When it comes to vote, we can play either 13.f15 or 13.r12 because we have checked them. I think there is no reason to check other moves (even if they can be better or not).
So i'm fine with r12 and f15.
I looked through the above. I saw lines where F15 wins; I saw lines where F15 loses. Same is true for R12. My inclination is to play F15, which takes the game to the left side. If we win there, hooray. If we get blocked on the left, we still have play in the center, and on the right with R12 coming.
If nobody says anything to me before I go to sleep, I'm playing F15. mc
mc
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15
DONE. Waiting ...
14. I4 .
HOT DIGGITY! We have FINALLY predicted the Twixtbot move CORRECTLY, and there's LOTS OF ANALYSIS already done above on this response. That should help, a lot.
(meow)
Alright, I'll double check and HAND TYPE THIS to get it right:
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15
14. L4 . That's 'ell four'. I really don't know what happened in the above post!
mc
Nice! I do like 15.f5 or 15.h6 for now. As a part of f15 plan. (we didn't analyze h6 but it might be a little better - of course we must check for any local danger).
An example:
15.h6 16.e16 17.e17 18.f14 19.j9 20.n14 21.l15 22.k11 23.k13 24.k10 - black wins
So we have to play 23.l10 24.l13 25.q14 26.o12 27.q11 28.p19 29.p17 30.n20 31.m20 32.l21 33.k21 34.j22 35.d19 - and white wins!
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.g8 17.c12 18.f17 threatening black p19
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4
70 hours remain in regulation, so we could STILL use another 36 hour increment here.
(quote)
I don't like 13.r12. It doesn't feel right. Here are some lines: 14.q6 15.i10 16.f6 17.c4 18.j9 19.h12 20.i11 21.g14 22.g15 23.f16 24.g19 25.h17 26.l21 27.k17 28.l19 29.l15 30.p19 31.m20 32.m21 33.q18 34.n20 or 27.k19 28.n20 29.p21 30.o18 31.p17 32.k16.
My vote is for 13.f15. All the lines I'm trying look pretty good. Leave the upper right corner clear for now, for a possible run up that side. Starting with r12 could get that corner blocked.
(unquote)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.g8 17.c12 18.f17 threatening black p19
maybe:
19.h16 20.j20 21.k17 22.p19 23.m20 24.l19 25.t17 26.t21 27.p17 28.l15 and here it gets dicey. Really fictional continuation, just to check that it still feels stronger for White than Black - 29.n10 30.q6 31.k13 32.j14 33.i8 34.k12 35.m8 - well, that line is good for White.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.g8 17.c12 18.f6 19.c4 20.f17 21.h16 22.j20 23.m20 24.k18
(meow)
Well, is that a winning position, or not?
25.k13 26.o16 27.q14 28.q15 29.q18 30.p13 31.p12 32.o11 33.o10 34.n9 35.n8 36.o6 37.m6 38.n5 39.r6 40.q5 41.t7 42.s4 43.w4
or 26.p14 27.p15 28.n15 29.q13 30.q12 31.r11 32.r10 33.s9 34.r5 35.q10 36.p10 37.p8 38.n9 39.p4 40.q4 41.r3 42.o5 43.o6 44.s5 45.m5 46.n3 47.k6 48.j5 49.j8 50.h10 51.k10
or?
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4
You are suggesting 15. H6 . We now need for some of the 'pros' to chime in.
mc
I wouldn't say I am *suggesting* 15.H6. Just exploring it. We should also look at 15.F5. Maybe other possibilities?
My first concern is that we have had very limited success in predicting the Twixtbot's moves. Yes - we got 14. L4 right, but that hasn't happened a lot. It may happen more now that the game is clarifying. The thing with these extended lines is that they usually become obsolete in a move or two. That makes them optimistic, but not necessarily practical.
What I'm suggesting is analysis that leans more to the theoretical, and less towards the specific. Florian was tending to do that a lot, early on.
Example - is it wishful thinking to connect I18 to the bottom, D6 to the top, and then form a chain from D6 to D10 to F15 to I18 and win? Well, it is not going to be THAT easy, but the threat is there. Can we enforce that threat by also threatening to connect from M12 to D10 (maybe through my favorite hole, H10), and then come around to R16 to O19 and down? If we reach the bottom from either I18 or O19 but are blocked in our chain on the left side, can we work up to the top right, perhaps with Florian's favorite moves like P9 or S10 (had to hunt WAY back to find these) or R12?
Look, I'm not saying that you guys aren't THINKING this way, but you are instead POSTING long lines, which may not come to pass!
Anyway, I'm just throwing out an approach. Take it for what it's worth (not much??) (meow)
Theoretical discussion might be helpful, but mostly to the non-experts, because the experts are probably all on the same page about the situation, and if not, a feeler line proves the point.
So, the top players see the string of pearls d6-d10-f15-i18, but also see it is not strong because it can be attacked in 3 places, with a black peg at c4, g15, or i20. But the immediate threat is that top one, c4, which might stop us from connecting to the top at all. So either that needs to be mitigated, or there is an outside chance that there is something to play in the upper right quadrant (did you notice that quarter of the board is entirely empty except for M12?) which looks risky but might be worth a look if we convince ourselves that everything in the top left leads to a loss.
Oh well, I'm just thinking out loud, at MY level of understanding and play. Believe me, I am certainly humbled, as a 1750 player, by a crowd of 2300's and above. I am HERE, so may as well say SOMETHING. No real harm done, and perhaps it can help, a teeny, tiny bit! Here - I'll paste everything I've just said, below:
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.c4 16.g15 17.h16 18.e14 19.j15 20.p9 21.j9 22.g8 23.h10
or you can ignore me completely, and consider lines in the actual position, here:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4
(meow)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.c4 16.g15 17.h16 18.e14 19.j15 20.m10 21.k11 22.i10 23.h10 24.g9 25.j11 26.h11 27.i9 and black wins with 28.f6.
Imagine the same lines but replace C4 to 15.f5 or 15.h6. Only 15.h6 is winning for white.
It is a good example to show the H6 potential and why it could be a better try than F5 (F5 is improved version of C4).
But if h6 has a local weakness then we should just play F5. Of course we can still play on the right but for me it does not make any sense if we decided to play f15.
If I have time today I will do some more analysis on h6 vs f5 in PC (its not easy on the phone).
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.g8 17.c12 18.f6 19.c4 20.f17 21.h16 22.j20 23.m20 24.k18 25.k13 26.o16 27.q14 28.q15 29.q18 30.p13 31.p12 32.o11 33.o10 34.n9 35.n8 36.p4 37.p5 38.o6 39.r6 40.p8 41.s8 42.q10 43.s11
Or 36.q4 37.o4
But what about 16.p19 17.p17 18.n20 19.m20 20.l21 21.k21 22.j22 23.d20 24.d16 threatening black f12?
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.p19 17.c12
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.p19
how about 17.g13?
Bob, I think 17.g13 would work. Maybe Maciej is just instinctively protecting the d10 peg. But if it turns out the d10 peg is safe, then 17.d14 would be even better as it's better connected to the bottom: 18.j20 19.f21 20.f20 21.e19 22.e18 23.d17 or 20.f17 21.d18. Is protecting d10 a concern? I think 18.e10 was mentioned as a possibility earlier, but that seems safe - 19.f11 20.g11 21.e8 22.c4 23.f5. Maybe I am missing something, but it's probably just an example.
--------- 16.g8 ------------
17.c12 18.f6 19.c4 20.e9 21.e8 22.f17 23.h16 24.j20 25.m20 26.k18 - most moves are forced, seems like white has a better position. And now:
27.k13
28.o16 29.q14 30.q15 and now why not 31.o13 ? - White wins
28.l15 29.i14 30.p15 31.q13 32.s16 - Black wins
31.q14 or 31.s14 - White (?) - I feel that at least one of them is winning.
Going back to 29.i14
30.p13 31.q14 - checked by Alan and David - White
30.p14 - checked by Alan and David - White
30.o13 31.p15 32.m14 - White
If everything above is for white that means 16.g8 is loosing for black.
I personally can't find anything that could be a local danger for h6 (16.h7 17.c12 - similar scenario).
So my vote in a battle F5 vs H6 is for 15.h6. I don't see any advantage of 15.f5 that 15.h6 would not have (because there is no any local danger like G8/H7 which David have tried).
--------- 16.p19 ------------
David, I am sorry. Your last line is actually good for white, so maybe p17 is still playable after p19 ?
15.h6 16.p19 17.p17 18.n20 19.m20 20.l21 21.k21 22.j22 23.d20 24.d16 25.g17 26.f12 27.f9 28.e14 29.k11 - white wins!
Bob, 17.g13 18.g11 19.f11 20.f17 21.h16 22.j20 23.m20 24.k18 25.p17 26.j14 - Black wins (?)
Maybe the easiest way would be 17.d14 - the counter move for p19!!
18.f17 19.e20 20.f20 21.g19 - white wins!
18.f17 19.e20 20.g15 21.d18 - white wins! (for example 22.c14 23.b15 24.e10 25.f11)
--------- 16.e10 ------------
17.f9 18.p19 19.c12 20.f17 21.h16 22.j20 23.m20 24.k18 25.p17 26.j14 27.j9 - White (?) - similar to Bob's position but slightly different.
17.f9 18.d12 19.d14 20.c14 21.g11 22.f12 - (???) - it was checked (we can replace f5 by h6 in previous analysis) by my brother, right?
23.k11 24.j12 25.j9 26.k18 27.p17 - seems white
23.k11 24.j12 25.j9 26.p16 27.l15 28.k18 29.p17 - seems white.
23.k11 24.j12 25.j9 26.p15 27.l15 28.k18 29.p17 30.n14 31.q13 - seems white with M13 threat
I think there is no need to analyze further. 16.e16 was already checked in previous posts (when we played F5 constantly).
So once again. My vote is 15.h6.
Example: 24.j12 25.j9 26.p19 27.m20 28.n15 29.h16 30.f12 31.l14 - white wins!
hey, mc (that would be the master of ceremonies, right?) -- I'm wondering if it might be helpful to press a bit for a consensus -- vs just letting the discussion die out
so, how's everyone feel about 15.h6 ?
WE HAVE 37 HOURS LEFT IN REGULATION.
I will try to read through the above analysis, If it APPEARS that people are happy with 15.h6, then I'll play it, BEFORE I go to sleep.
mc
Maciej has already voted for 15.h6. Michal hasn't been in the discussion for this move. I'd like to hear from David, though.
Just getting to this now - maybe David ALREADY approves in some lines he posts above. I'll give a look.
(meow)
The move has been made over 30 minutes ago. It is unusual for the Bot to take this long. Perhaps he is offline. Perhaps he has crashed! Perhaps he can not handle the strain of calculating against all the excellent moves we have been hitting it with!
I have to go to sleep, eventually. If somebody ELSE beats me to the post, check on the game, and if the Bot moves, post it here. At least we are not losing time now, and we have a nice 73 hours.
(mc)
Move List
TXT
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6
Twixtbot is asleep. mc
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3
Is TwixtBot going bonkers? 17.f7 threatening d2 or i4. That would seem to be a clear improvement in our position. Is there anything even stronger?
That's my best surmise, unless corrected by BonyJordan.
mc
Most ridiculous possible move from the Bot? :D
The thing it means is the following : The bit thinks we are winning, and in the best variation for him, these two moves don't change anything to the position. It means that he will try a final attack somewhere the variation won't change with these moves. I already saw him doing this when I played against him one year ago.
It looks like TB don't care about top-right corner and it's just filling some space - making more space for further calculations?
Or TB knows that it's over and just trying to fool/confuse us by using forcing moves. Like he did in game against David , where David could probably win. It is pretty obvious for me that we have a very few options right now, only a few moves can be played.
17.f7 and 17.f5 seem to make the most sense. 17.E8 is a little risky. Do we play safe? 17.f5 seems like an improvement without any casualties. J5 will be played by black anyway. However 17.f7 gives to black c5 (18.j5 19.d2 20.c5) or i5 (18.j5 19.g3 20.i5) for free.
On the other hand is there a way that black can use C5 peg? I mean the scenario like this: 17.f7 18.j5 19.i4 20.i3 21.d2 22.c5 23.e4, 24.g10?
Hmm... for me it just looks like TB gives himself a place to play J5.
Teamwork will still be required, to play error free. Anybody, at any time, could err; the point is, proposed moves are being analyzed and CHECKED. Let us finish off the Twixtbot, and then I will post another of my essays at the LG Forum discussing the ramifications. I'll bet you can hardly wait!
Oh, and Maceij, thanks for that instructive post yesterday night.
mc
Btw I don't think f5 or f7 is a difference for TB.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.j5 19.i4 20.i3 21.d2 22.c5 23.e4 24.g10 25.c12 26.f8 27.e8 and it’s too late for 28.p19 because 29.g17
I cannot see any good moves for black. It think it is just "GG, go next!"
White has significant attacking possibilities.
I'll be home in an hour. If nobody adds anything, I'll have one more look at above posts; then most likely play F7.
mc
waiting ... if the problem was that Twixtbot takes longer when it only finds losing moves, then this may take a while ...
shucks; we lost the 'battle' for NOT CONNECTING links the longest; will CosimoC ever forgive us? ...
18. E10 . I sure hope that this does not present a problem?! My first thought is 19. F11 ?
(meow)
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10
Time for players: 98/240
mc
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 and now
20.c11 21.j9 22.j12 23.k11 24.p19 25.l14 26.l19 27.h16 28.j15 29.i15 30.j20 31.d20
Or 22.p19 23.p17 24.n20 25.m20 26.l21 27.k21 28.j22 29.f20
Or 22.p14 23.l15
Yeah, that's right! D3 makes sense! It's like I said before "for me it just looks like TB gives himself a place to play J5" but in that time I didn't analyze deeper. But now when I check it it is clear to me that D3 was necessary for J5 (if Black wanted to attack left with E10).
Look at both scenarios:
a) 16.e10 17.f9 18.j5 - stop here for a moment - for example 19.c12 and the top connection is given by 20.d3 21.g3 / 20.c4 21.g3 - easy win for white (we gained 1 extra move)
b) 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.j5 - stop here for a moment - we are forced to play on the top corner (21.c12 22.f2 - do not work), so we do not gain an extra move.
Only in the second scenario the J5 is a black's threat.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f11 20.g11 white is cut off on the left and in the center.
19.g9 20.g11 21.i10 22.k11 doesn’t look much better.
Is there any other black's threat on the top that black could gain? I think it is only the J5 but maybe I missed something.
Tb will wait with j5 (not necessarily here 20.j5) if i4 (not necessarily here 21.i4) is helpful for us and will play it in the correct moment when we will not be able to play i4 or if i4 won't have an effect. Or if i4 do not help us in any scenario he can play it directly 20.j5 21.i4...
Example (hypothetical scenario just to show the power of J5) :
20.c11 21.g11 22.e16 23.h14 24.i15 25.f13 26.j20 27.m20 28.k18 29.g17 30.f20 31.k11 32.o13 33.q12 34.r12 35.s13 36.p11 37.r11 38.q9 39.s9 40.s4 41.r7 42.q4 43.n7 and now without J5 white wins 44.m6 45.p6 46.m10 47.o4 but with J5 black wins: 44.o5 45.p8 46.j5 47.i4 48.j9
M.C., why not 19.f11 -- 20.g11 21.f9 22.e12 (why not 19.g9 20.g11) looks really bad for white, we let the H13-G11 to connect the left, but here 19.f9 20.g11 21.c12 black is blocked.
I vote for 19.f9
I don't have time this morning to analyze, but what about ignoring d10 for now and cutting through - for example, 19.i10?
Sleepy last night, so I rushed those 2 suggestions, Maceij -
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10
19.f11 was my quick idea to make sure we connect to the D6-F7 link, but of course 20.g11 21.c8 22.e12 loses;
then I threw in my other suggestion of
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10
19.g9
which you AND David bust with
20.g11 21.i10 22.k11, but HERE, guys, doesn't the 'USUAL' remedy to the K11 block solve the problem?
I mean 23. J11 and then 24.i12 25.k9 and we happily connect towards R16 or even I18 !
I know, I know, I'm missing my usual, silly, obvious move that any idiot should spot - so kindly SHOW ME, and I will meekly step aside!
(meow)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.g9 20.g11 21.i10 22.k11
but HERE, guys, doesn't the 'USUAL' remedy to the K11 block solve the problem?
I mean
23.l11
24.i12 25.k9 and we happily connect towards R16 or even I18 !
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.g9 20.g11 21.i10 22.k11
23. L11 seems to work out for me, but ALSO 23. J11 seems to work out now as well! One way: 24.i11 25.k9 26.j13 27.l11
That's it! Head spinning. Stopping this now, and getting coffee. See y'all LATER!
(meow)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.g9 20.g11 21.i10 22.k11 23.l11 24.l13 25.k9 26.n12 27.r12 28.p19 29.p17 30.n20 31.m20 32.l21 33.k21 34.j22 35.f20 36.i19 37.h16 38.k18
or 7.k19 38.g18 39.e18 40.f16 41.d16 42.g14
OR
23.j11 24.j9 25.k13 26.i11
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.g9 20.g11 21.i10 22.k11 23.l11 24.l13 25.k9 26.n12 27.r12 28.p19 29.p17 30.n20 31.m20 32.l21 33.k21 34.j22 35.f20 36.i19 37.k19 38.h17
Also 35.d20 36.e18 37.e17 38.g17 wins for black.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.i10 20.j5 21.i4 22.i3 23.d2 24.c5 25.e4 26.k11 27.g11 28.f12 29.k13 30.j13 31.i14 32.i11 33.m10 34.l9 35.p7 36.n10 37.q10 38.r10 39.s9 40.p11 41.r11 42.p19 43.p17 44.n20 45.m20 46.l21 47.k21 48.j22 49.f20 50.i19 51.h16 52.k18 53.o15
or |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.i10 20.j5 21.i4 22.i3 23.d2 24.c5 25.e4 26.j14 27.l15 28.k16 29.p17 30.l13 31.o11 32.m11 33.o7 34.n7 35.q8
there could be some mistakes
but I f9 is easier to predict and should also be winnig:
example |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12 25.i12 26.j14 27.p17 28.o13 29.p15 30.n15 31.q12 32.r12 33.s11 34.q14 35.t13
NOW, against my 23. J11 , I only considered above the defense 24. i11 for black, which white can beat as shown. I am thinking that I am MISSING the more important, and perhaps obvious defense for black that is more effective than 24. i11 . One could argue that I can learn more by trying to figure this out on my own, but I give up easily.
Kindly clue me in. mc
my line with question: |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.g9 20.g11 21.i10 22.k11 23.j11
current line:
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10
mc
It appears that team Celuch is sold on 19. F9 and have offered up some reasoning and defense for this move, and are stopping there. I guess, then, if nobody has anything to add or object to, I shall be playing this, but I will give a few more hours.
mc
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12 25.i12 26.j14 27.p17 28.o13 29.p15 30.n15 31.q12 32.r12 33.s11 34.q14 35.t13 - what about 32.p12?
So I am prepared to wait until tomorrow, if need be, for this situation to be analyzed and resolved; hopefully, In our favor. Time for players: 77/240
(meow)
21. J11 ? This gives threats to connect with F9, H6, and also M12, and even F15. For example,
22.g9 23.i8
22.k10 23.h12 24.j12 25.g14 26.g9 27.i9
perhaps a worthwhile approach??
(mc)
If |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12 25.i12 26.j14 27.p17 28.o13 29.p15 30.n15 I don't see any fast-forward; we just have to trudge on: 31.q13 32.p11 33.r11 34.q9 35.s9 36.r5 37.q8 38.p4 39.o9 or 36.s4 37.q8 38.p7 39.p6 40.p2 41.p4 or 38.q5 39.o7....
Probably still missing something. Maybe a line that includes j5.
Tomorrow I work - drive around and around and around in my taxi; I will keep checking - primarily to see if the TEAM remains sold on 19. F9 . As long as this stays the move of choice, and nobody improves upon it, I SHALL make the move; tomorrow!
mc
Did I say k11? I remember saying 19.i10, and 20.k11 was one of Michal's responses showing that path to be treacherous. He didn't explore 21.h12, though. Is that not a strong reply?
That line of attack doesn't work for j11: 19.j11 20.k10 21.h12 but then 22.g11 23.i14 24.h9 25.k9 26.j9, and it could go like that even if you start with 19.f9 20.d12 - 21.j11 22.k10 23.h10 24.j12 25.e13 26.g15, yikes. I don't see a good reply after 19.j11 20.k10.
K11 looks equivalent to F9 - we could start with 19.k11 and then 20.j9 21.f9 22.d12 23.g11 - that's just a reordering of the line being explored for F9. Is it? I haven't proven it, but it might be a more straightforward way to get the same result on the right side as starting with 19.f9. If we can prove that k11 connects to the top, I like it very much.
You are right, Monsieur le chat, we don't know if TB will reply to 19.f9 with 20.d12, but it is a good stand-in for other replies as well. I explored 20.e16 and I think it plays out pretty similar to 20.d12. TB has to play along the left side if we play 19.f9, because of our latent d14 threat, but it is possible he'll play lower than 20.e16 ... we should probably look at that.
19.i10 20.g11 21.k11 22.j14 23.p17 24.o13 25.p15 26.n15 27.q13
I've been staring at it too long. Now i10, f9, and k11 all look alike to me.
19.f9
20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12 25.i12 26.j14 27.p17 28.o13.
Now 29.p15 is a big mistake - perhaps winning for black as Alan suggested! White can play instant 29.q12 - white wins! (for example 30.p12 31.o11 32.r13 33.q14 or 30.r12 31.s11). So here the 29.q12 is a clean win for white!
But some black moves are not clear for me in the scenario above, which are 24.f12 and 22.j9 and 20.d12 - not good for black! Here is why I don't like them:
F12: 20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12
Why black should do that when he can just play this 24.i11 (possible continuations 25.d14 26.f17 27.e20 28.g15 - black wins, 27.h16 28.j20 - is not a good spot for white). But it would be an instant black win if 20.c11 was played instead of 20.d12.
J9: 22.j9 23.i10 - ?
D12: 20.d12 21.e13 and 21.d14 threats can be used by white player but here 20.c11 it's not possible. We can gain 21.l10 as we wish only if black plays 20.d12 -> 21.e13 22.c14 23.h10 24.g11 25.l10. I am not so sure about this but 20.c11 seems just a better option for black to me. But probably C11 vs D12 doesn't matter at all since we can just play K11 in both scenarios 20.d12 21.k11, 20.c11 21.k11.
For now I don't know which is the best 19.f9 19.k11 19.i10 - it's not an easy task.
19.i10 20.k16 and what ?
21.h16 22.g11 - black wins
21.q14 22.p19 23.p17 24.n20 25.m20 26.l21 27.k21 28.j22 29.f20 30.e22 31.e23 32.g21 33.d21 34.h19 - black wins
21.p17 22.k11 23.h12 24.j14 25.f13 26.f17 - black wins
I have a feeling that 19.i10 is the most risky one. For now I can't find anything against 19.f9 or 19.k11.
Still I vote for 19.f9 as probably the most safe one.
19.i10 20.k16 and 21.h16 22.g11 - black wins? after 23.j12 24.j14 25.p17 it is not clear to me.
my 19. G9 got trashed above by David, but now I'm reminded of my old move 19. H10 . Has that been trashed lately? Maybe it has; I can't find the analysis. H10 threatens connections to D10, H6, and M12 (20. G11 21. J11).
Well, I'm throwing it into the mix right now, along with 19. F9 (Maceij, Michal), 19. K11 (also Alan) , and 19. I10 (Alan). Perhaps we need some new blood here? David? Florian? Bob?
This is day 2 of move 19 analysis, so let us TRY to get this done. (meow)
Time for players: 64/240
For example, I think you (mc) mistakenly attributed k11 to me; all I did was analyze your mistake and found it to be good.
I still like K11.
I had the feeling that you guys were getting a bit winded at this point (Maceij made a remark to that effect: " it's not an easy task."; so did you: "I've been staring at it too long"). Rest assured - at no point in this entire experiment have I EVER intended to apply 'credit' or 'blame' to anybody for anything. However - I DO tend to joke around a bit, and perhaps my attempts at humor can be misinterpreted. If THAT is the case, I apologize. mc.
If there is a doubt, playing i10 is maybe the key.
Do we have a variation with a problem against F9?
Only 50 hours left, and I'm reluctant to wait another day.
So I am playing 19. F9 .
I am not waiting on TB reply: ...
20. F17
DO NOT POST ANY MORE COMMENTS HERE! WE ARE MOVING TO A NEW PAGE. WAIT A FEW MINUTES, PLEASE.
(meow)
Please go there. I am working on copying over some of the analysis from above, and posting links and notices at Little Golem.
mc