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His |17.u15 made it important to establish a connection to the right side. I could have delayed it with threats, but nothing that would help, as far as I could tell. So |18.s17 is the right move in this situation, because it has the lightest touch on the right side without actually letting him thru. This basically forced |19.r14, since it's the most threatening move linked to T13, and he needs that link, or the 20.s9 21.t10 threat comes alive again.
So after his |19.r14, I had a choice. This is probably the crucial move where I lost the game. I had originally thought that |20.m11 would be safe, but then I realized it was not really: 21.q16 22.p18 23.t19... or 21.q16 22.q18 23.o17 24.o19 25.m16. There are many alternatives, however, to |20.m11. Many choices. Maybe even one that works. Maybe |20.o19. But I wanted to preserve the connection to J10, and not have an uncertain battle across the bottom to the left. I thought |20.l14 covered my threats: |21.q16 22.q18 23.o17 24.o19 25.m16 26.l16 27.j13 28.j15 29.l12 30.h14 31.h12 32.f15.
What I completely missed was the threat of |21.q17. If |22.p16 then 23.s18 24.r15 25.u17 or 24.t19 25.p15 26.r20 27.p19. Crisis. I started to think things like |22.q20 23.r19 24.p18 25.t20 26.q16 27.v17 28.???, and |22.q21 23.s18 24.s20 25.n20 26.??? ... Argh, nothing works.
My next plan was to try to mix up the center, hopefully getting a peg with a strong enough connection to N13 that I could play p14 and make a double threat... I'm not sure how, but for example |23.q7 24.r10 25.o8 26.p14. Unfortunately, his |23.t10 shut down the possibility. After my |26.u11, I hoped he'd be a little careless and play |27.o8, and then 28.p14 29.p15 30.r13. But he played it right, with |27.r9; I don't have enough threats to cross his parallelogram. I could threaten it with |28.p13, but that does me no good; in fact, it's easily answered: 29.p15. Game over.