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|33.e7 34.f5 35.d4 36.c4 37.b5 38.e3 39.c3 40.c2
2.j15 - Black lets White keep the advantage
3.m12 - White stands aside, handing the advantage to Black
4.o17 5.m16 6.l16 7.f15 8.g12 9.q17 10.q16 11.r15 12.r14 13.d10 - Black builds his line, and White is helpless to stop him. |14.e11 or |14.f10 would have made victory easy for White, but |14.c12 has one flaw, and White exploits it: 15.g13. A little misadventure to right side, and then White closes in on the upper left, but misses his |35.e7 36.f5 37.d5 shot and hands victory back to Black.
but (particularly in retrospect), |18.e8 looks a bit sketchy, too. I think |18.e6 would have been better
the table shows a 54% edge for |1.f19 -- it's an advantage, sure, but very strong?
well, Alan might (and likely does) have a different idea, but I think you need something more directly between my 1st move and the right border -- N14, O14 and Q14 all look playable
Bob has the right 3rd move idea. |3.m12 does nothing to block the J15 peg. It lets Black form 2-5 gap (very strong) across the bottom with |4.o17. You can think of a good blocking distance as starting from the 0-2 gap: |3.L15, for example, and then spots proceeding away from that: |3.m15, |3.n15, but with some preference for moving away from the nearest edge, so |3.n14, but usually within or close to the triangle with a 1/2 slope (so n14, p13) - approximately, of course. With experience you'll be able to judge that better. I don't think I would actually do p13, but m14 might be okay. There may be enough space on the other side, too, with the help of the strong F19 peg: |3.h14 happens to be a 2-5 gap from F19. That looks like something TwixtBot would do.