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In the actual game, pete99 did successfully counter the defense for the win. Afterward, Steven Medcalf questioned whether or not there might be a possible win for Black that had been overlooked. To help answer that question, White agreed to begin the analysis by outlining the variations he had considered in response to 16.d5. White's plan was to build on a straight line from d7 because he believed that the only way to win involved having a pair of pegs at j4 and j8.
VARIATION 0: The game as it actually played out, which is the outcome White had expected. 17.f6 18.f4 19.h5 20.i5 21.j4 22.e10 23.h9 24.g9 25.j8 26.k6 27.m7
VARIATION 1: 17.f6 18.f4 19.h5 20.i5 21.j4 as before, then 22.k4. Normally, White must then go to 23.l3, and a likely loss, but here, because of the c3 peg, that is not necessary. If 23.h9 then Black can move 24.i3, but 25.e4 gives White two paths to connect, using either g2 or c5 for a winning connection. But what if Black moves 26.d3, blocking access to g2 and threatening a win with a link from d3 to b2? White can then move 27.e2, restoring the option of connecting two ways using again either g2 or c5 for a winning connection. If 28.f2 then 29.c5. That concludes Variation 1, but if 28.c7 29.g3 then things get more complicated. White must threaten to build from h9 to defeat Black -- see Variations 2, 3 and 4.
VARIATION 2: 17.f6 18.f4 19.h5 20.i5 21.j4 as before, then 22.k4 23.h9 24.i3 25.e4 26.d3 27.e2 28.c7 29.g3. If 30.f8 then 31.c9 32.e10 33.d12 34.e11 35.d11 36.f13 37.h13 38.g10 39.c14 40.e15 41.d17 42.e16 43.b18, and White can win from there.
VARIATION 3: 17.f6 18.f4 19.h5 20.i5 21.j4 as before, then 22.k4 23.h9 24.i3 25.e4 26.d3 27.e2 28.c7 29.g3. If 30.g9 then ? (Black may win?) TBD
OTHER VARIATIONS: Some options end with White connecting from h9 to the peg at d7 via f8.
I can find no continuation for white that wins from here. Any suggestions?
After pete99 discovered, when playing against the Medcalf defense in the usual way (i.e., in this case with |22.k4 23.h9), that there was no obvious counter to |22.k4 23.h9 24.i3 25.e4 26.d3 27.e2 28.c7 29.g3 30.g9, he was close to giving up on his approach of playing the 15.d7 move that would permit Black to employ the Medcalf defense in the first place. However, because there were no other obvious good alternatives to 15.d7 he looked for any other way to make the 15.d7 move work. And found one... by reversing the direction of the |22.k4 23.h9 link to |22.k4 23.e10 instead! This creates VARIATION 4 for White to use instead of either VARIATION 2 or VARIATION 3.
VARIATION 4: 17.f6 18.f4 19.h5 20.i5 21.j4 as before, then 22.k4 23.e10 24.i3 25.e4 26.d3 27.e2 28.c7 29.g3 for a White win. Or alternately White wins by 26.c7 27.g3.
|18.e10 19.h9 20.i5