16.r8 was a new move to me. I guess it shouldn't have worked in this case, but it seems like it could be a good tactic for black depending on resources in the middle of the board.
I guess good play by white would be 17.u918.s619.s520.r421.r10. This would allow black to do something like 22.r1223.s1224.s14, which in some cases would be better than giving up that section, I think.
I think so. The general pattern, an 0-3 opposition (P9:P6) followed by a flanking peg (S8) and then the emergency peg (R8) typically (in my mind) plays out more like this:
and black wins that. However, there are a lot of variations. As for the actual move 18, what if |19.r10? It looks to me like move 18 handed the game to White, and White's response, |19.s9, handed it back, and then White's only hope at that point is that Black would hand it right back again. But |20.s6 cut off the possibility of White squeaking thru the R7-R8 gap, and set up the final double threat (t4 or s10).
I guess good play by white would be 17.u9 18.s6 19.s5 20.r4 21.r10. This would allow black to do something like 22.r12 23.s12 24.s14, which in some cases would be better than giving up that section, I think.
17.u9 18.s10 looks good for black. So is 16.r8 a winning move?
|17.s8 18.s6 19.s5 20.r4 21.r3 22.s10
and black wins that. However, there are a lot of variations. As for the actual move 18, what if |19.r10? It looks to me like move 18 handed the game to White, and White's response, |19.s9, handed it back, and then White's only hope at that point is that Black would hand it right back again. But |20.s6 cut off the possibility of White squeaking thru the R7-R8 gap, and set up the final double threat (t4 or s10).
20.s7 21.u9 22.s10 23.t12 24.t13 25.u14 26.s11 27.t11 white wins, OR
20.t4 21.t3 22.s6 23.s10 24.s11 25.t12 26.r9 27.s9 and again white wins.
I may well have missed something.