THIS STUB GAME WAS CREATED BY DAVID FOR ANALYSIS. WE SHALL USE IT NOW, TO CONTINUE ANALYSIS OF THE WORLD VS. TWIXTBOT. I WILL PASTE BELOW SOME OF THE RECENT ANALYSIS FOR MOVE 19 AND BEYOND. THE COMMENTS ABOVE THIS LINE CAN BE DISREGARDED AS OLD.
Yeah, that's right! D3 makes sense! It's like I said before "for me it just looks like TB gives himself a place to play J5" but in that time I didn't analyze deeper. But now when I check it it is clear to me that D3 was necessary for J5 (if Black wanted to attack left with E10). Look at both scenarios:
a) 16.e1017.f918.j5 - stop here for a moment - for example 19.c12 and the top connection is given by 20.d321.g3 / 20.c421.g3 - easy win for white (we gained 1 extra move)
b) 16.d317.f718.e1019.f920.j5 - stop here for a moment - we are forced to play on the top corner (21.c1222.f2 - do not work), so we do not gain an extra move.
Only in the second scenario the J5 is a black's threat.
Tb will wait with j5 (not necessarily here 20.j5) if i4 (not necessarily here 21.i4) is helpful for us and will play it in the correct moment when we will not be able to play i4 or if i4 won't have an effect. Or if i4 do not help us in any scenario he can play it directly 20.j521.i4...
On 2020-01-21 at 21:17, Alan Hensel (info) said: I'm in favor of waiting another day, even though on further analysis, I think the picture is brightening up.
Did I say k11? I remember saying 19.i10, and 20.k11 was one of Michal's responses showing that path to be treacherous. He didn't explore 21.h12, though. Is that not a strong reply?
K11 looks equivalent to F9 - we could start with 19.k11 and then 20.j921.f922.d1223.g11 - that's just a reordering of the line being explored for F9. Is it? I haven't proven it, but it might be a more straightforward way to get the same result on the right side as starting with 19.f9. If we can prove that k11 connects to the top, I like it very much.
You are right, Monsieur le chat, we don't know if TB will reply to 19.f9 with 20.d12, but it is a good stand-in for other replies as well. I explored 20.e16 and I think it plays out pretty similar to 20.d12. TB has to play along the left side if we play 19.f9, because of our latent d14 threat, but it is possible he'll play lower than 20.e16 ... we should probably look at that.
But some black moves are not clear for me in the scenario above, which are 24.f12 and 22.j9 and 20.d12 - not good for black! Here is why I don't like them:
D12: 20.d1221.e13 and 21.d14 threats can be used by white player but here 20.c11 it's not possible. We can gain 21.l10 as we wish only if black plays 20.d12 -> 21.e1322.c1423.h1024.g1125.l10. I am not so sure about this but 20.c11 seems just a better option for black to me. But probably C11 vs D12 doesn't matter at all since we can just play K11 in both scenarios 20.d1221.k11, 20.c1121.k11.
Clever move by the bot? F17 threatens to connect to H13 or to H21! Did anybody anticipate this? Can we deal with it?? I leave it to The Team to sort out! mc Time for players: 86/240
Middle-left: 22.d12 or 22.c11 to connect H13 to the left; Middle-left: 22.i11 to connect H13 to the top group; Only one of the "Middle-left" is possible for black, he will choose the one he needs at the right moment.
Bob, I agree that white has many possibilities now. But the 23.m20 can be the easiest one to predict black moves and still be winning. For example we can also play 23.d1624.d2125.m20 but I am afraid that d16 gives NOTHING to us. And there is a tiny chance that black can play something out of nowhere and surprise us. I am open to any explanation (how we can use it later on) for 23.d16 which change my mind. If there is a use of that move we should play it immediately. If there isn't we should not play it at all.
Bob, we can also play 23.r12 (it can also be winning) but I am afraid of 24.p12 kind of respond from black which would be hard for us to analyze.
So I prefer to play straight 23.m20. I can't find anything for black:
We still have a lot of time, rigth? 20 vacation days + about 100 hours. So I think we should wait here a little bit and check 23.m20 deeper. For now I do think that 23.m20 is the best but if we find something for black against 23.m2024.k1825.k11 then maybe we should consider to defend top right corner: 23.p923.t7.
I hope 23.m20 is fine because it's brilliant and fits into our strategy!
I think after 23.m20 TB will play 24.k18. The reason is that we will have to play first somewhere in the middle and then TB will respond. If TB plays f.e. 24.o16 or 24.o13 then we can fit to the board status, example: 24.o1325.k1326.k1827.p1528.n1529.r11
Wouldn't it be safer to start with 23.t17 (threatening t21)? I think there is nothing TB can do in the lower right corner to ruin m20. For example, 24.q2225.m20.
It could go a different way, such as 24.l1925.o13, but if TB forces us into the upper right quadrant, it'll be nice to have t17 as a downstream peg, right?
It looks like most predictions above were for K18, but I guess L19 is a similar connection. That's it then - I guess we are not reaching the bottom on the left side. I believe The Team has planned for that, so now we are focusing on straight up on the right side, or cutting through diagonally with M12. Both routes have potential, and both routes will require effort. Good luck to us!
THIS analysis page IS starting to get on the long side. I WILL create another one soon, so don't worry about that.
Wait, what? 24.l19 ? Why not 24.k18? Florian have to be right by saying "he just seems crushed."... Or maybe there is no difference and TB just played one of them. Nevertheless the current move is very important! We have to be careful now.
25.p11 I cant see anything good for black now. P11 direclty attack top right and together with R16 and M12 gives the bottom. so if black block top right 26.q6 then simply 27.k11 which connect to the top left.
I tried to find anything for black to break through P11-R16-M12 but I couldnt.
I can't find anything for black to 25.p11 and to 25.k11.
For 25.k11: (since K11-M12 is connected to the top let's make it even more difficult to us and give some extra pegs: 26.k1027.i1028.k629.i430.k231.j2 - there is no chance that black could gain more) Even now is there anything for black?
32.o1333.q12 -- white wins!!! possible continuations :
25.p11 seems to be perfect as well. There is no hope for black! I really don't know which is better. Both seems to be winning. That's the situation I don't like:D Coinflip ?
On
2020-01-25 at 09:07,
MisterCat
said:
25. i15 looked really good to me, BUT I just played out a hypothetical line where BLACK wins by beating us in the center. I'm sure it's junk, but I'm going to post it just so you can have a look. I am a bit depressed that black beats me, but I expect I did not play well for white.
My post above referred to 21. L15 (mentioned by Maceij several posts up); had that problem where capital I and small l looked alike. If you want to play out my nonsense line above, start with 25. L15. mc
On
2020-01-25 at 11:50,
MisterCat
said:
Posting, but sleepy, so I make typos. Number should be 25.
In the interest of balancing our analysis, I started to try to think of lines for 25.p11, but I've been unable to think of a strong reply for Black. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist; just that I can't think of it.
For example, this line is a little awkward, but still seems to be winning for White: 26.o1327.r1228.o929.t7
I guess I will play either 25.p11 or 25.k11 in the morning. At that time, we'll be down to around 81 hours, but will get 36 more, so we'll be over 100.
It would be nice if somebody gives me a useful suggestion on how to choose; if not, I'll just have to figure out something. (meow)
On
2020-01-26 at 01:46,
bob440
said:
Michal says you can flip a coin, so why not just pick the one you like best?
On
2020-01-26 at 07:10,
spd_iv
said:
I would like to see which move David, Alan and Florian like the most :)
Sorry you will have to repeat moves but this page will take less time to load and to scroll.
(roar)
As you see, I put a little effort into setting the other one up. Somebody make up their mind here, because we can't possibly use BOTH pages now.
(mc)
Michal suggested
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.r12 14.p19 15.g17 16.g11 17.d14 18.e10 19.f9 20.c11 21.b11 22.a12 23.r8 24.o17 25.l15
Is 16.l4 17.f5 18.g11 any good for black?
You have more analysis THERE
Let’s use THERE
mc
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10
19.f9 20.f17
mc
F9 seems best.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 and now
20.c11 21.j9 22.j12 23.k11 24.p19 25.l14 26.l19 27.h16 28.j15 29.i15 30.j20 31.d20
Or 22.p19 23.p17 24.n20 25.m20 26.l21 27.k21 28.j22 29.f20
Or 22.p14 23.l15
Yeah, that's right! D3 makes sense! It's like I said before "for me it just looks like TB gives himself a place to play J5" but in that time I didn't analyze deeper. But now when I check it it is clear to me that D3 was necessary for J5 (if Black wanted to attack left with E10).
Look at both scenarios:
a) 16.e10 17.f9 18.j5 - stop here for a moment - for example 19.c12 and the top connection is given by 20.d3 21.g3 / 20.c4 21.g3 - easy win for white (we gained 1 extra move)
b) 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.j5 - stop here for a moment - we are forced to play on the top corner (21.c12 22.f2 - do not work), so we do not gain an extra move.
Only in the second scenario the J5 is a black's threat.
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 -- 19.f9
Is there any other black's threat on the top that black could gain? I think it is only the J5 but maybe I missed something.
Tb will wait with j5 (not necessarily here 20.j5) if i4 (not necessarily here 21.i4) is helpful for us and will play it in the correct moment when we will not be able to play i4 or if i4 won't have an effect. Or if i4 do not help us in any scenario he can play it directly 20.j5 21.i4...
Example (hypothetical scenario just to show the power of J5) :
20.c11 21.g11 22.e16 23.h14 24.i15 25.f13 26.j20 27.m20 28.k18 29.g17 30.f20 31.k11 32.o13 33.q12 34.r12 35.s13 36.p11 37.r11 38.q9 39.s9 40.s4 41.r7 42.q4 43.n7 and now without J5 white wins 44.m6 45.p6 46.m10 47.o4 but with J5 black wins: 44.o5 45.p8 46.j5 47.i4 48.j9
Alan, sth like this?
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.i10 20.j5 21.i4 22.i3 23.d2 24.c5 25.e4 26.k11 27.g11 28.f12 29.k13 30.j13 31.i14 32.i11 33.m10 34.l9 35.p7 36.n10 37.q10 38.r10 39.s9 40.p11 41.r11 42.p19 43.p17 44.n20 45.m20 46.l21 47.k21 48.j22 49.f20 50.i19 51.h16 52.k18 53.o15
or |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.i10 20.j5 21.i4 22.i3 23.d2 24.c5 25.e4 26.j14 27.l15 28.k16 29.p17 30.l13 31.o11 32.m11 33.o7 34.n7 35.q8
there could be some mistakes
but I f9 is easier to predict and should also be winnig:
example |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12 25.i12 26.j14 27.p17 28.o13 29.p15 30.n15 31.q12 32.r12 33.s11 34.q14 35.t13
Michal's line:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12 25.i12 26.j14 27.p17 28.o13 29.p15 30.n15 31.q12 32.r12 33.s11 34.q14 35.t13 - what about 32.p12?
What about, after 1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.d12
21. J11 ? This gives threats to connect with F9, H6, and also M12, and even F15. For example,
22.g9 23.i8
22.k10 23.h12 24.j12 25.g14 26.g9 27.i9
perhaps a worthwhile approach??
(mc)
I'm in favor of waiting another day, even though on further analysis, I think the picture is brightening up.
If |1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12 25.i12 26.j14 27.p17 28.o13 29.p15 30.n15 I don't see any fast-forward; we just have to trudge on: 31.q13 32.p11 33.r11 34.q9 35.s9 36.r5 37.q8 38.p4 39.o9 or 36.s4 37.q8 38.p7 39.p6 40.p2 41.p4 or 38.q5 39.o7....
Probably still missing something. Maybe a line that includes j5.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10
Did I say k11? I remember saying 19.i10, and 20.k11 was one of Michal's responses showing that path to be treacherous. He didn't explore 21.h12, though. Is that not a strong reply?
That line of attack doesn't work for j11: 19.j11 20.k10 21.h12 but then 22.g11 23.i14 24.h9 25.k9 26.j9, and it could go like that even if you start with 19.f9 20.d12 - 21.j11 22.k10 23.h10 24.j12 25.e13 26.g15, yikes. I don't see a good reply after 19.j11 20.k10.
K11 looks equivalent to F9 - we could start with 19.k11 and then 20.j9 21.f9 22.d12 23.g11 - that's just a reordering of the line being explored for F9. Is it? I haven't proven it, but it might be a more straightforward way to get the same result on the right side as starting with 19.f9. If we can prove that k11 connects to the top, I like it very much.
You are right, Monsieur le chat, we don't know if TB will reply to 19.f9 with 20.d12, but it is a good stand-in for other replies as well. I explored 20.e16 and I think it plays out pretty similar to 20.d12. TB has to play along the left side if we play 19.f9, because of our latent d14 threat, but it is possible he'll play lower than 20.e16 ... we should probably look at that.
On 2020-01-22 at 05:50, nie_wiesz (info) said:
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10
19.f9
20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12 25.i12 26.j14 27.p17 28.o13.
Now 29.p15 is a big mistake - perhaps winning for black as Alan suggested! White can play instant 29.q12 - white wins! (for example 30.p12 31.o11 32.r13 33.q14 or 30.r12 31.s11). So here the 29.q12 is a clean win for white!
But some black moves are not clear for me in the scenario above, which are 24.f12 and 22.j9 and 20.d12 - not good for black! Here is why I don't like them:
F12: 20.d12 21.k11 22.j9 23.g11 24.f12
Why black should do that when he can just play this 24.i11 (possible continuations 25.d14 26.f17 27.e20 28.g15 - black wins, 27.h16 28.j20 - is not a good spot for white). But it would be an instant black win if 20.c11 was played instead of 20.d12.
J9: 22.j9 23.i10 - ?
D12: 20.d12 21.e13 and 21.d14 threats can be used by white player but here 20.c11 it's not possible. We can gain 21.l10 as we wish only if black plays 20.d12 -> 21.e13 22.c14 23.h10 24.g11 25.l10. I am not so sure about this but 20.c11 seems just a better option for black to me. But probably C11 vs D12 doesn't matter at all since we can just play K11 in both scenarios 20.d12 21.k11, 20.c11 21.k11.
Clever move by the bot? F17 threatens to connect to H13 or to H21! Did anybody anticipate this? Can we deal with it?? I leave it to The Team to sort out!
mc
Time for players: 86/240
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.j5 23.i4 24.j20 25.m20 26.k18 27.r12 28.i11 29.p7 for example.
Agree with David, 21.h16 is good.
Assume 21.h16. We should take into consideration that black can play (not necessarily as a 22th move - I just want to show them on the board)
Top: there is a 22.j5 threat;
Middle-left: 22.d12 or 22.c11 to connect H13 to the left;
Middle-left: 22.i11 to connect H13 to the top group;
Only one of the "Middle-left" is possible for black, he will choose the one he needs at the right moment.
Bottom-left: 22.j20;
Bottom-right: 22.p19;
Black can wait for the right moment to play those moves and now he can attack directly on the right: What if: 21.h16 -> 22.p15, 22.p14, 22.o13, 22.q14, 22.o14, 22.n15, 22.n14 etc.?
Black can take middle. What if: 22.j14 22.l15 22.k16 etc.
Do we find anything that kills 21.h16?
I will check some possibilities later on, today evening or tomorrow.
21.h16 I forgot to add the Bottom: 22.m21
My first continuation is: 21.h16 22.m21 23.t17 24.k10 25.g11 26.k22 27.h20 28.g19 29.j21 30.i23 31.k13 - good for white.
I have a feeling that the right direct attack is the most dangerous one. But we should check them all ;-)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.m21 23.t17 24.j12 25.g11 26.c11 27.f13 28.k22 29.h20 30.g19 31.j21 32.i23 33.j15 34.j5 35.i4 36.i3 37.d2 38.f14 39.d14 40.n19 41.p17 42.n14 43.r12 44.q8 45.k13 46.o12 47.r10 48.p10 49.s8 50.s4 51.q7 52.q5 53.o6 54.o4 55.m7 56.k10 57.k8 58.i7 59.i9 60.g8 61.g9
Maybe white can shut black down sooner. This line shows possible tricks for black in the top left.
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.m21 23.t17 24.j12 25.g11 26.c11 27.f13 28.k22 29.h20 30.g19 31.j21 32.i23 33.j15 34.j5 35.i4 36.i3 37.d2 38.f14 39.d14 40.n19 41.p17 42.n14 43.r12 44.q8 45.k13 46.o12 47.r10 48.p6 49.p9 50.m11
22.j14 23.k11 24.j5 25.i4 26.i10 27.h10 28.g11 29.j9 30.m20 31.k17 32.j20 33.n21 34.l19 35.p15 36.o16 37.o13
22.k18 23.h16 24.j20 25.p17 26.n15 27.o13 28.j14 29.k13 30.i11 31.d16 32.g19 33.j16 34.d12 35.e13 36.c14 37.h10
22.p14 23.k13 24.j20 25.m18 26.k18 27.n16 28.i11 29.h10 30.j9 31.h16 32.d12 33.e13
22.g11 23.j9
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.l15 22.j5 23.i4 24.g11 25.j9 26.i10 27.l10 28.j8..
example:
21.h16 22.m21 23.h20 24.j20 25.g22 26.d12 27.e13 28.c14 29.h10 30.g11 31.k13 32.j14 33.j15 34.k12 35.l10
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.m21 23.h20 24.j20 25.g22 26.d12 27.e13 28.c14 29.h10 30.g11 31.j11 32.k16 33.k13 34.j14 35.p17 36.o22 37.n21 38.q23 39.l20
21.h16 22.j20
and we cant play 23.k13 --> 24.p14 25.o13 26.q16 27.p17 28.o12 so we have to play f.e. 23.p17 then black has to play somewhere in the middle/right side (example: 24.p14 25.o13 26.o12 27.p15 28.i11 29.h10 30.j9 31.j15)
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.j14 23.h10 24.j20 25.p17 26.k10 27.k13 but 26.o13 27.n15 28.n14 29.l16 30.k16 31.p14 32.l13 33.o12 34.k10 35.l10 36.i11
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.j14 23.k19 24.d12 25.h10 26.g11 27.k11 --> 28.p14 29.o13 30.q16 31.p17 32.o12 33.l15
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.m21 23.t17 24.j12 25.g11 26.c11 27.f13 28.k22 29.h20 30.g19 31.j21 32.i23 33.j15 34.j5 35.i4 36.i3 37.d2 38.f14 39.d14 40.n19 41.p17 42.n14 43.r12 44.q8 45.k13 46.o12 47.p10 and now
48.q13 49.t13 50.r11 51.s10 52.s9 53.t8 54.s4 55.r7 56.q5 57.p6 58.o6 59.n7 60.m7 61.n9 62.m8 63.m9 64.m10 65.o11
Or 58.o4 59.n5 60.m3 61.m7 62.m10 63.k8 64.i7 65.l10
Or 52.r6 53.q11 54.m11 55.o8 56.p5 57.n6 58.o3 59.m8 60.k10 61.k7
Or 48.p9 49.r9 50.s9 51.t10 52.n10 53.s8 54.s4 55.q7 56.q5 57.o6 58.o4 59.m7
After all that I probably missed something obvious
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.m21 23.t17 24.j12 25.g11 26.c11 27.f13 28.k22 29.h20 30.g19 31.j21 32.i23 33.j15 34.j5 35.i4 36.i3 37.d2 38.f14 39.d14 40.n19 41.p17 42.n14 43.r12 44.q8 45.k13 46.o12 47.p10 48.q13 49.t13 50.r11 51.s10 52.s9 53.t8 54.s4 55.r7 56.r6
David as I said before after 22.m21, I think better is to play 23.h20
24.j22 25.g22 26.d12 27.h10 28.g11 29.k11 30.k16 31.p17 32.o22 33.n21 34.q23 35.l20 36.k20 37.j19 this line is much easier for white
David, wow!! Your top-left battle is actually amazing. But it's very improbable... White would just play 24.j12 25.g11 26.c11 27.f13 28.k22 29.h20 30.g19 31.j21 32.i23 33.j15 34.j5 35.i4 36.i3 37.d2 38.f14 39.d14 40.n19 41.p15 and now 42.q22 43.n21 44.o22 45.p22 or 42.p21 43.u20 or even 43.u19 44.u23 45.r23 - all wins for white. In that case black can also play 24.i11 to defend from K13 white threat...
Against 22.m21 we can also play just as Michał said 23.h20 or 23.n21
Michał, P17 do not work against J20 but M20 does - that was our whole plan (even i18 based on that) in the bottom part of the board.
21.h16 22.j20 23.p17 24.p14 25.o13 26.o12 27.p15 28.i11 29.h10 30.j9 31.j15 32.c11 33.e11 34.f14 or 22.j14 23.h10 24.j20 25.p17 26.k10 27.k13 28.i11 29.j15 30.c11.
22.j20 23.m20 looks brilliant - we win the tempo on the right!
23.k13 24.i11 25.c12 26.j20 27.m20 28.l19 29.r12 30.j14 looks fine for white
46.p20 47.u19 48.u23 49.r22
Or 46.p21 47.r23
23.k19 24.d12 25.h10 26.g11 27.l10 28.j5 29.i4 30.i3 31.d2 32.o13 33.q13 34.p11 35.r11 36.q9 37.s9 38.r5 39.q8 40.p4 41.o9 42.l9 43.m8 44.k11 45.k7 46.j7 47.i6
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.m21 23.t17
Now 23.h20 24.j5 25.i4 26.c11 looks better than d12. What does white do then?
Also I believe I can fix my error
23.t17 24.j12 25.g11 26.c11 27.f13 28.k22 29.h20 30.g19 31.j21 32.i23 33.j15 34.j5 35.i4 36.i3 37.d2 38.f14 39.d14 40.n19 41.p17 42.n14 43.r12 44.q8 45.k13 46.o12 47.p10 48.q13 49.t13 50.r11 51.s10 52.s9 53.t8 54.s4 55.t6 56.u5 57.v5 58.w4 59.r5 60.q5 61.p6
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.m21 23.h20 24.j5 25.i4 26.c11 and 27.g11 28.f12 and white can play f.e. 29.r12 or 29.k11
24.j20 25.g22 26.c11 27.g11 28.f12 29.k11 30.l15 31.p17 32.o13
33.p13 34.q14 35.n12 36.s15 37.o14 or
33.p13 34.p15 35.r12 36.n11 37.p9 38.q6 39.n10
😺
Move List
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16
22.j20
At least SOME analysis up there predicted J20, so that's a head start.
(meow)
well, this from Maciej (01-23 at 10:41)
22.j20 23.m20 looks brilliant - we win the tempo on the right!
looks very promising
but I worry about the upper right
Seems really clear now, only a very very complex variation could save TB to me cause he just seems crushed.
Bob, I agree that white has many possibilities now. But the 23.m20 can be the easiest one to predict black moves and still be winning. For example we can also play 23.d16 24.d21 25.m20 but I am afraid that d16 gives NOTHING to us. And there is a tiny chance that black can play something out of nowhere and surprise us. I am open to any explanation (how we can use it later on) for 23.d16 which change my mind. If there is a use of that move we should play it immediately. If there isn't we should not play it at all.
Bob, we can also play 23.r12 (it can also be winning) but I am afraid of 24.p12 kind of respond from black which would be hard for us to analyze.
So I prefer to play straight 23.m20. I can't find anything for black:
I am trying to find a bad spot:
23.m20 24.k18 25.r12 26.p12 27.q10 28.q14 29.s14 30.q4 31.o11 32.i11 - black wins
27.o13 28.q14 29.p15 30.k10 31.l10 32.j5 - black wins (?) but 29.p11 should be fine for white
so then 28.q10 29.q14 30.j5 - black wins ? - 31.i4 32.i3 33.d2 34.k10 35.l10 36.i11 - is there anything for white, I can't find it now?
Hmm, so the 26.p12 looks scary. The same with 23.r12 24.p12.
23.m20 24.k18 so maybe not 25.r12 (I did not like R12 and still is not my favorite), but 25.k13 or 25.k11?
I think we analyzed the 25.k13 kind of answer long time ago and it looked promising.
We still have a lot of time, rigth? 20 vacation days + about 100 hours. So I think we should wait here a little bit and check 23.m20 deeper. For now I do think that 23.m20 is the best but if we find something for black against
23.m20 24.k18 25.k11 then maybe we should consider to defend top right corner: 23.p9 23.t7.
I hope 23.m20 is fine because it's brilliant and fits into our strategy!
23.m20 24.k18 25.n14 or 25.o13? Can black punch through from L17 to the right?
Also, are we sure 23.m20 forces 24.k18? Black still has the possibility of cutting our line with d12. For example,
23.m20 24.o16 25.k19 26.d12 27.k13 28.i11
I won't do ANYTHING until I get home from work tonight (about 13 hours from now). In fact, I'm not even going to LOOK here; too distracting to me.
But I see no reason to just throw away hours needlessly. If M20 remains the move of choice tonight, I will play it then.
😺
for 23.m20 24.o16
I think I like 25.q14
I think after 23.m20 TB will play 24.k18. The reason is that we will have to play first somewhere in the middle and then TB will respond. If TB plays f.e. 24.o16 or 24.o13 then we can fit to the board status, example: 24.o13 25.k13 26.k18 27.p15 28.n15 29.r11
23.m20 24.k18, so now we have to play first in the middle and that is why we need time to check all the possibilities
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.j20 23.m20 24.k18 25.p11 26.j5 27.i4 28.i3 29.d2 30.c5 31.e4 32.q14 33.q13 34.p16 35.p17 36.r12 37.o15 38.i11 39.k13 40.c11 41.g11 42.f12 43.l10 44.j9 45.p7
25.p11 26.p13 27.q14 28.o11 29.n10 30.r14 31.o13 32.p6 33.k11 34.j9 35.g11 36.i11 37.j15 or
25.p11 26.q14 27.q13 28.p16 29.p17 30.r12 31.o15 32.k10 33.p7 34.o13 35.n13 36.o9 37.n10 38.q10 39.o8 or
25.p11 26.p13 27.p15 28.n14 29.r12 30.q6 31.k11 32.j9 33.i10
looks good for white
Wouldn't it be safer to start with 23.t17 (threatening t21)? I think there is nothing TB can do in the lower right corner to ruin m20. For example, 24.q22 25.m20.
It could go a different way, such as 24.l19 25.o13, but if TB forces us into the upper right quadrant, it'll be nice to have t17 as a downstream peg, right?
I dont like 23.t17. Black can play 24.s18 25.u19 26.u23 ...
1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.j20
23.m20
.........
24.L19 !
It looks like most predictions above were for K18, but I guess L19 is a similar connection. That's it then - I guess we are not reaching the bottom on the left side. I believe The Team has planned for that, so now we are focusing on straight up on the right side, or cutting through diagonally with M12. Both routes have potential, and both routes will require effort. Good luck to us!
THIS analysis page IS starting to get on the long side. I WILL create another one soon, so don't worry about that.
(meow)
Wait, what? 24.l19 ? Why not 24.k18? Florian have to be right by saying "he just seems crushed."... Or maybe there is no difference and TB just played one of them.
Nevertheless the current move is very important! We have to be careful now.
(*) 25.n14 26.j5 27.i4 28.k10 - black wins
(*) 25.o13 26.k10 - black wins
So now we have to cut the center connection or play on the right.
(*) 25.k13: the standard start: 26.j5 27.i4 28.i3 29.d2
-- 30.l15 31.l10 32.j9 33.g11 - possible outcome on the left
---- 34.p15 35.q13 36.s16 -- black wins
---- 35.q14 - (white wins?) - 36.q13 37.r12 38.r11 39.s10 40.s9 41.t8 42.s4 43.r7 44.q4 45.n9
-- 30.p15 - knowing this black can play instantly the p15 and white has to play 31.q14 - still seems to be a white win (?)
(*) 25.k11:
-- 26.j5 27.i4 28.i3 29.d2 - the standard start -
-- 30.g9 31.j9 32.k7 33.h8 - one of the top battle outcome -
---- 34.o13 35.q12 - good for white!
---- 34.p14 35.p15 36.n15 37.q13 (if this wins then K11 is good for real)
(*) 25.l15: the defense against 26.p14
-- 26.p14 27.o13 28.q16 29.p17 - looks good for white
-- many other possibilities
There is also Michał's 25.p11 which is hard to predict but can be our hope.
25.p11 I cant see anything good for black now. P11 direclty attack top right and together with R16 and M12 gives the bottom. so if black block top right 26.q6 then simply 27.k11 which connect to the top left.
I tried to find anything for black to break through P11-R16-M12 but I couldnt.
I can't find anything for black to 25.p11 and to 25.k11.
For 25.k11: (since K11-M12 is connected to the top let's make it even more difficult to us and give some extra pegs: 26.k10 27.i10 28.k6 29.i4 30.k2 31.j2 - there is no chance that black could gain more)
Even now is there anything for black?
32.o13 33.q12 -- white wins!!! possible continuations :
34.p12 35.o11 36.r13 37.q14
34.r12 35.p15 36.n15 37.s11 38.q14 39.t13 40.s15 41.t15
34.n11 35.p10 36.q4 37.n10
or 36.n7 37.o8 38.o9
or 36.m9 37.p6
36.n10 37.p6
32.o14 33.r12 -- white wins!!! possible continuations :
34.q15 35.q14 36.r17 37.s18
34.p12 35.q10 36.o10 37.q6
34.q13 35.q14 36.p11 37.q9 38.s8 39.q10
or 38.p4 39.q10 40.n10 41.t5
or 38.q4 39.o8 40.n10 41.o4
34.q13 35.q14 36.r11 37.s10 38.q9 39.s6
or 38.r5 39.q9 or 38.s9 39.t8 40.s4 41.r7 42.q4 43.p8
32.p14 33.p15 34.n15 35.q13 -- white wins!!! possible continuations :
36.o12 37.p10 38.p8 39.o8
or 38.r9 39.q12 40.n10 41.p6
or 38.n10 39.r6 or 38.n10 39.n9 40.m8 41.p6
or 38.m11 39.p6
36.q12 37.r11 or 38.p10 39.t6
36.q12 37.r11 38.r10 39.s9 40.s4 41.r6 42.q3 43.t7 44.p5 45.w4
or 44.u5 45.p9
or 40.r5 41.q8 42.o11 43.r6
25.p11 seems to be perfect as well. There is no hope for black! I really don't know which is better. Both seems to be winning. That's the situation I don't like:D Coinflip ?
26.p14 27.o13 28.q16 29.p17 30.i11 31.c12 32.n15 33.q14 34.i15 35.j15 36.k14
(meow)
mc
So, 1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.j20 23.m20 24.k18
25. L15.
26.p14 27.o13 28.q16 29.p17 30.i11 31.c12 32.n15 33.q14 34.i15 35.j15 36.k14
mc
I'm starting to believe.
In the interest of balancing our analysis, I started to try to think of lines for 25.p11, but I've been unable to think of a strong reply for Black. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist; just that I can't think of it.
For example, this line is a little awkward, but still seems to be winning for White: 26.o13 27.r12 28.o9 29.t7
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.j20 23.m20 24.l19
25.p11
if 26.o13 27.r12 28.o9 then 29.n10 and
30.m10 31.k11 or
30.k19 31.o6
|1.d6 2.g4 3.m12 4.m17 5.r16 6.r20 7.o19 8.l8 9.d10 10.h21 11.i18 12.h13 13.f15 14.l4 15.h6 16.d3 17.f7 18.e10 19.f9 20.f17 21.h16 22.j20 23.m20 24.l19
25.p11
if 26.o13 27.r12 28.o9 then 29.n10 and
30.m10 31.k11 or
30.k10 31.o6
I spent 2 hours to try to find good respond for black and I failed :)
so we can just flip a coin.
Time for players: 91/240
I guess I will play either 25.p11 or 25.k11 in the morning. At that time, we'll be down to around 81 hours, but will get 36 more, so we'll be over 100.
It would be nice if somebody gives me a useful suggestion on how to choose; if not, I'll just have to figure out something.
(meow)
25.p11
26.m21
Time for players: 116/240
😺
http://twixt-commentator.duckdns.org/game/2144862